Hungry Offaly have vulnerable looking Meath in their sights
THE jury may be still very much out on Offaly and their prospects but they will enter Sunday's Leinster Senior Football Championship quarter-final against Meath in Tullamore with realistic ambitions of progress.
Meath are favourites but it is a crown that is resting very uneasily on their shoulders. You couldn't quite label it as a 50-50 game at the moment but it is not far off that and there will be very few people truly surprised if Offaly pull it off – including Royal County supporters.
Offaly's display when edging out Longford in the first round did not suggest anything seismic taking place, yet it was quietly pleasing. They defended very well and showed character to win a real tight battle by 1-12 to 1-11.
Longford will be kicking themselves as they had chances but it is the type of game Offaly have often lost in the past and they did well to win it. It also eases a lot of the pressure off them for the season as they have achieved their two primary aims: securing their status in Division 3 of the National Football League and winning the first round of the Leinster championship.
Manager Martin Murphy and the squad of players will be setting their sights much higher but Offaly are now in bonus territory. A win on Sunday will be greeted with tremendous delight while a defeat will be accepted, as long as it is not a bad one and they empty the tank in the process.
It has been a very strange year for Offaly. The sudden death of manager Liam Kearns a few weeks ago has had a profound impact on all in the panel. The Kerry native had done great work with the squad as they got into promotion contention. He got the players impressively fit and was clearly having a very positive impact on them.
A selector Martin Murphy has stepped up as manager since and that was the obvious solution. The Gracefield man has managed Offaly U-21 footballers in the past as well as guiding Portarlington to great success in Laois in recent years. Kearns, Murphy and the other selector, John Rouse had drawn up their plans for the year and putting in a new man with different ideas would not have been the right road to go.
Since Murphy took over, the show has continued to go on. In the immediate aftermath of Kearns very sad passing, Offaly rallied the forces to have a fine league win over Tipperary. With promotion on the line, they had their worse performance in the last round against Down. It is possible that they were able to ride on a roller coaster of emotion for the Tipp game and that the impact of Kearns' death hit them like a tonne of bricks that day.
With a number of the 2021 All-Ireland U-20 winning team likely to progress into senior ranks next year, staying in Division 3 was not a devastating blow but the performance against Down did raise a lot of questions.
They answered many of them against Longford, where their hunger and intent was very noticeable. Yet the Down defeat showed that Offaly retain the potential to sustain bad beatings. It has happened them up and down over the years in championship and league and they can struggle against really physical, athletic teams. They don't really have that conditioning built up yet and there are plenty of teams they could struggle against – including some well outside the top tier.
Meath, however, are not in that bracket and Offaly should be well able to compete against them. The Tullamore venue is a big help and Offaly have absolutely nothing to fear. Their most recent performances suggest they are well capable of beating them. They drew with them in the league in Tullamore in 2022, 1-10 each and that was a game Offaly should have won, conceding a last minute goal. They ran Meath close in the championship in John Maughan's first year in charge in 2019, losing by 1-13 to 0-14 in Navan. Offaly played very well that day and were very close to a big victory.
While Meath handed Offaly some bad beatings in in 2010 and back in the 1990s, the current squad won't have any fear of them while most of them have become accustomed to competing well against them at U-20-21 and minor level.
Meath's form this year has done nothing to set alarm bells ringing in Offaly. They retained their status in Division 2 of the National Football League but only Clare and Limerick were below them in the table. They got an important win over Cork in their first game and then beat Clare in the next one. They haven't won a game since then, losing to Derry, Louth, Dublin and Kildare and drawing with Limerick.
It was enough to secure their status and that was Colm O'Rourke's primary ambition for the league but it is not exactly the form of champions. They were blown out of the water by Dublin, 2-19 to 1-11 and enter the championship with a lot of clouds floating over them.
There is definite pressure on their manager, 1980s folk hero Colm O'Rourke and a defeat on Sunday will go down like a lead balloon in Meath. There is pressure on Offaly for Sunday, no team plays a championship game without that but it is a lot more severe on Meath. A defeat would be a disaster for them while Offaly are entering this game in a different place.
The stakes are also huge for Meath as they could go into the Tailteann Cup unless they reach the Leinster final. Colm O'Rourke is under a lot of scrutiny in Meath and their supporters are fearing the worse.
It should be a good game of football and it will be a big surprise if either team runs away with it. There is a great opportunity for every team in this half of the draw. The winners of Offaly and Meath will meet Louth or Westmeath in the Leinster semi-final and all of those teams can dream of a Leinster final.
There is a great chance in front of Offaly on Sunday. It will take a very good performance and they need to improve from the Longford game. Their attack in particular have the scope to improve further. Expect Offaly to perform and go close. There is a feeling in Meath that they are sitting ducks for this one. It remains to be seen if Offaly can take them out but that possibility certainly looms large for them. A historic win is in their sights.