WEATHER FORECAST: Will the weather in Ireland improve in August after a July washout
The July washout does not look set to be followed by an August drought or even a dry spell according to Met Éireann which expects rain to be the main weather hazard through much of the month.
Following the record-breaking July rain, the forecaster has published details of what to expect in August in its up-to-date extended forecast as follows.
MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED FRIDAY 28 JULY 2023
Week 1 (Monday 31 July to Sunday 06 August): For Week 1, there is a generally unsettled picture with low pressure dominating though high pressure out to the west may lead to some drier periods than of late. Temperatures will likely be around average for the time of year despite a predominant northerly airflow. Much of the country will likely have above average rain though parts of the west and south may be closer to or slightly below average. The most likely hazard is rainfall amounts falling on saturated areas with possible flooding.
Week 2 (Monday 07 August to Sunday 13 August): Week 2 has a continued unsettled regime signalled with low pressure dominating and a mostly northerly airflow leading to cooler conditions across much of the country. The high pressure to the west is set to decline, so with less of an influence from that, rainfall amounts will likely be above average throughout the country. Rainfall amounts remain the most likely hazard with possible flooding.
Week 3 (Monday 14 August to Sunday 20 August): There is much more uncertainty for Week 3. However, indications are that it be rather changeable with above average rainfall amounts signalled. Temperatures will likely be around normal for the time of year. Rainfall amounts remain the most likely hazard and thundery downpours cannot be ruled out.
Week 4 (Monday 21 August to Sunday 27 August): There is a signal for improving conditions in Week 4 with high pressure predicted to be the main driver of our weather in a fairly slack airflow. Temperatures will likely be around normal for the time of year but with below average rainfall predicted for much of the country. No hazards are currently indicated.
The forecaster has also published a autumn seasonal outlook for August, September and October (ASO).
It says the signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the Autumn is for above average temperatures to continue with near average rainfall overall.
Above average temperatures are expected to continue in Ireland for the ASO period. Mean temperatures are very likely to be largely between 1.0 and 2.0 °C above average countrywide for August. September and October will likely have mean temperatures between 0.5 to 1.0 °C above average.
The rainfall forecast is uncertain with some models indicating below average rainfall and others forecasting above average rainfall for Ireland. However, a slight majority of the models are indicating that wetter than normal weather is possible in August and September with low pressure to the south dominating. The signal is mixed for October with equal probability of precipitation being above or below average.
The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts and over the Atlantic are expected to continue above average over the three month period, trending 0.5 to 2.0°C degrees higher than normal.
Met Éireann says the extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.