Darragh O’Brien wary of Tanaiste’s prediction of when house prices would fall

The Housing Minister has said he is wary of saying when house prices would moderate – despite his party leader predicting this would be within several years.

Tanaiste and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin said on Tuesday when the number of homes being built each year increases to 45,000 or 50,000, he expected house prices to moderate.

When asked when this would be, he agreed that this would be around 2027 or 2028.

Under the original Housing for All targets, the coalition parties had agreed targets to build an average of 37,000 homes a year from 2025 until 2030.

Before the Dail was dissolved, these targets were increased to an average of 50,500 homes.

“I want to see house prices moderate, I think we can speculate as to when that might happen, and it’s important that they do, but supply is key to that,” Mr O’Brien said.

He told reporters at the Fianna Fail launch of an Above the Shop Grant of 100,000 euro to encourage the refurbishment of city buildings into homes: “The outlook is positive in relation to the increase in supply.

“(In) 2020 we delivered 20,000 homes, this year will be high 30,000s, maybe 40,000 as well, but across all tenures, and that’s really important that we have that mix between social, affordable and private homes, and yes, rental homes too.

“In relation to the date as to when we would see that (house prices moderate), I can’t speculate on that.”

When asked why he could not answer the question, the Housing Minister added: “I don’t disagree with what the Tanaiste has said at all.

“When you look to project forward as to what house price will look like, that’s a difficult thing to do. That’s all I’m saying, it’s a very difficult thing to do.

“But we want to see house prices moderate and I believe with continuing increased supply – that we will we will deliver, if in government – and by expanding the affordable supports that we have, is making sure that homes are more affordable for our people.”

Mr O’Brien also disagreed that housing commencement data was an unreliable metric of housing output, and said 57,000 housing starts in the last 12 months were “real starts”.

He said that there would be a new target next year of 41,000 new-builds.

The minister said that Fianna Fail would make sure housing is a “number one priority” in the next government.

Mr O’Brien also criticised Sinn Fein and the Social Democrats for pledging to scrap the Help-to-Buy and the First Home schemes, saying it would “pull the rug” from under first-time buyers.

Sinn Fein and the Social Democrats have argued that the housing schemes are inflationary and that the supports for prospective home buyers need to be more targeted.

“We’ve been very careful to make sure that they don’t have any inflationary impacts,” Mr O’Brien said.

“If you look at the percentage of transactions with Help-to-Buy and First Home, as a percentage of overall mortgage transactions, it still is very, very small and does not drive inflation in any way, shape or form in house prices. But we do keep those things under review, and it’s important that we do.”

Asked whether proposals to change the Help-to-Buy, as proposed by the Green Party, he said: “I don’t believe there’s any need to change it in the manner in which the Green Party have put forward.”

The Green Party has suggested targeting Help-to-Buy by aligning it with the property price caps of the First Home scheme.

Mr O’Brien said 55,000 households had availed of the grant and it needed to be retained until 2030.

“I wouldn’t support any changes to the Help-to-Buy that are going to reduce the access that people will have to buy their own home.”