Effect of Covid-19 pandemic behind drop in reconviction rates, report finds

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is thought to be behind a drop in the number of offenders being reconvicted within a year of being released from jail or sentenced to an alternative to custody.

Official Scottish Government figures for 2019/20 offenders show the reconviction rate has fallen 4.5 percentage points to 24.1% from 28.6% in 2018/19.

Between 2009-10 and 2018-19, the reconviction rate dropped by two percentage points, from 30.6% to 28.6%.

The report advises “heavy caution” in using the data and said it is not considered to be “indicative of longer-term trends”, adding that the drop in reconviction rate is “due to the Covid-19 pandemic”.

A note on statistics adds a drop in the number of proceedings in court due to the pandemic “are likely to have resulted in a substantial decrease in reconviction rates, owing to system related changes as opposed to changes in the underlying offending behaviour or effectiveness of any particular sentencing outcome or policy”

The statistics for 2019/20 indicate the average number of reconvictions fell from 0.51 in 2018/19 to 0.40.

Offenders who committed a crime of dishonesty had the highest reconviction rate at 40.2% while those who had committed a sexual crime had the lowest at 10.8%.

Those released from prison had an average number of reconvictions per offender of 0.70 in 2019/20, 16% lower in 2018/19.

The reconviction rate for those given a community payback order fell by 4.7 percentage points in the same period to 25.1% in 2019/20.

Justice Secretary Angela Constance said: “Reconviction rates remain at one of the lowest levels recorded – meaning fewer victims and safer communities.

“Prison will always be needed for those who pose a risk to public safety. However, I recognise that the imprisonment rate in Scotland is high and we are taking action to address that. That includes ongoing investment in community-based interventions which we know are more effective at reducing reoffending than short-term imprisonment.

“The Bail and Release from Custody Bill, passed by parliament last week, seeks to refocus how remand is used so that it is reserved for those who pose a risk to public and victim safety. The Bill also improves support for people leaving prison, helping them to successfully resettle in their communities and not reoffend.”