More than 16,000 deaths recorded in first three months of 2024

Deaths registered in the first three months of 2024 were 9% lower than expected, the National Records of Scotland has said.

Between January 1 and March 31, 16,755 deaths were registered in Scotland, however, the expected number was 18,391.

Experts calculate the expected figures from trends in population size and age structures.

It meant that expressed as a rate, there were 12.4 deaths per 1,000 population in the first quarter of the year.

In all age groups, deaths were below the expected levels for the last three quarters, with quarter one of 2024 showing deaths among under-65s, of which there were 117, as 4% lower than anticipated.

Deaths in the 65-79 age group were 468 – 8% lower than expected – while deaths for people aged 80 and over were 1,051 – 11% lower than estimates.

A breakdown of the data also showed cancer was the most frequent cause, with 4,174 deaths recorded in January to March, followed by 2,155 from respiratory diseases.

Phillipa Haxton, head of vital events statistics at the National Record of Scotland (NRS) said: “The number of deaths was almost 9% lower than our expected number for this time of year.

“The method for calculating excess deaths accounts for the large numbers of babies born post-war reaching the age groups at which end of life is more likely. The previous method did not adjust for the increasing size of this group and underestimated how many deaths there would be in the population.”

Meanwhile, 11,560 births were registered in the first three months of the year – 4.6% lower than the five-year average.

Marriage rates increased by 8.3%, with 3,205 registered in the first quarter of the year.