Scottish progress on child poverty to outstrip rest of UK, says charity

Scotland’s child poverty rate is predicted to drop further than the rest of the UK in five years, a charity has said, but one in five will still be in poverty.

Forecasting by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) suggests Scotland’s child poverty rate could fall to 21.8% by January 2029 from the current rate – believed to be 23.7%.

If the projections – which use modelling from the IPPR think tank – are accurate, Scotland will continue to have the lowest rate of child poverty in the UK as well as the only one which is predicted to fall.

Wales will see an increase from 32.3% to 34.4%, while England’s rate will rise from 30.8% to 31.5% and Northern Ireland’s from 25.5% to 26.2%.

The charity also projected that Scotland’s child poverty rate before housing costs are accounted for would be the lowest in the UK and could fall to 19.8% as the decade comes to a close, with the charity placing the current rate at 21.5%.

By January 2029, the charity predicts, Scotland will have the lowest rate of child poverty, with England and Wales seeing their figures increase to 22.9% and 28.3% respectively, while Northern Ireland will see a slight reduction to 25.5%.

The Scottish Government has set binding targets to reduce relative child poverty to 18% by 2023-24 and to 10% by 2030-31, alongside a drop in absolute poverty to 14% by 2023-24 and 5% by 2030-31.

Figures assessing these targets – which use a different methodology from the JRF projections and as such cannot be compared – are due to be released in the coming months.

First Minister John Swinney has made eradicating child poverty the driving mission of his administration and told the PA news agency in December he was confident the target could be reached, but if the projection proves accurate, almost one in five children will still be in poverty by the end of this decade.

Chris Birt, the JRF’s associate director for Scotland, said: “The First Minister has said eradicating child poverty is his government’s number one priority, but these figures show just how far we are from that day.

“This goal couldn’t be more important which is why we must hold the Scottish Government, and whole Scottish Parliament, fully accountable to make sure the progress made thus far is not the summit of our ambitions.

“If the child poverty reduction targets are met, compared to our central scenario over 100,000 fewer children would be living in poverty – a mountain to climb but a radically better Scotland than the one we see today.

“What people in Scotland deserve is for both their governments to work in their interest.

“The Scottish Government has set themselves lofty ambitions, but the UK Government has also promised change but we need to see concerted efforts from UK Government, including on social security, to deliver the better society free from poverty that our children deserve.”

The differences between Scotland and other parts of the UK are due, in part, to the implementation of the Scottish Child Payment, the JRF has said.

The payment – available only in Scotland – gives families £26.70 for each eligible child and has been highly praised by charities.

Scottish Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville welcomed the report, but stressed “we are clear no child should be living in poverty in a country as prosperous as Scotland”.

She added: “This report should act as a wake-up call for the UK Government and shows them exactly what they need to do to support our efforts to end child poverty – including abolishing the two-child limit and delivering progress toward an essentials guarantee, which the Scottish Government has repeatedly called on them to do.

“The draft Scottish Budget for 2025-26 prioritises action to eradicate child poverty, including through investment in breakfast clubs, employability and by developing the systems to mitigate the two-child limit – with estimates that scrapping the cap could lift around 15,000 children out of poverty.

“The report shows that Scotland is bucking the trend on child poverty rates elsewhere in the UK.

“However, we are in no doubt that there is still much more to do and we will leave no stone unturned across Government as we seek to eradicate child poverty.”

Responding to the figures, Scotland Office minister Kirsty McNeill said: “The UK Government is delivering our plan for change to put more money in people’s pockets.

“The best route out of poverty is secure, well-paid work, which is why we are delivering the biggest upgrade to workers’ rights in a generation, with an increase to the minimum wage and starting the process to ban exploitative, zero-hour contracts.

“Our reforms to Universal Credit mean families will be better off by around £420 a year on average and our child poverty task force, set to report in the spring, will seek lasting reductions to child poverty.

“This Government ended austerity, with the largest settlement for the Scottish budget in history – an extra £4.9 billion.”