SNP one seat short of majority, poll suggests

The SNP could fall just one seat short of a majority in May’s election, a new poll has suggested.

A survey done by Survation for the Diffley Partnership spoke to 1,017 people between February 20 and 25, finding 37% support for the SNP in constituencies and 33% on the list.

If that result was replicated, the party would return to power with 64 seats – the same result as in 2021 and one short of the majority sought by First Minister John Swinney, which he has said would secure another referendum on independence.

Reform UK would follow the SNP in second place, with 17% in both votes, claiming 19 seats, while Labour received 18% in the constituency and 17% on the list, but would only return 17 MSPs.

The Tories would follow in fourth with 13 seats – down substantially from the 31 claimed five years ago – with the Greens claiming nine seats and seven for the Lib Dems.

The poll also asked respondents for their approval ratings for each government, with the UK Government securing the support of just a quarter, with 65% disapproving, compared to 40% approval and 47% disapproval for the Scottish Government.

John Swinney was found to be the most popular politician among the respondents, with a net favourability rating of minus 1%, compared to the Prime Minister’s minus 41%.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s approval sat at minus 20%, with a substantial 27% of respondents undecided about the Glasgow MSP.

Reform UK leader in Scotland Malcolm Offord had a minus 12% net approval rating, but 61% of respondents were undecided about the former Tory peer.

Mark Diffley, a director at the Diffley Partnership, said: “Our new poll reinforces that the SNP continues to lead its rivals, but it also highlights an electorate weighing up competing priorities and mixed views on government performance.

“What stands out is that voters see the Scottish Government’s record as the key factor shaping their vote for Holyrood.

“As parties enter the crucial pre‑election period, it is clear that perceived competence at Holyrood will be central to how voters make up their minds.”

Constitution Secretary and SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said a majority was “within touching distance”.

“There is no room for complacency, but by delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland – on our NHS and on the cost-of-living crisis – a fresh start with independence is there to be won and every single vote counts,” he said.

“The Labour Party in Scotland is mired in chaos and infighting – they have nothing to offer Scottish voters except more of the same in broken, Brexit Britain, while the SNP is firmly on Scotland’s side with John Swinney focused on delivering for our people.

“This is yet another encouraging poll, but the work does not stop – the opportunity that May presents the Scottish people is there to be won.

“That chance to build Scotland anew is on the ballot in May and only a vote for the SNP can secure that future.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “Scotland is being let down by a tired SNP government that can no longer get the basics right.

“Only Scottish Labour can beat the SNP and fix their mess – restoring our NHS, improving our schools, tackling the housing emergency and making communities safer.

“Reform has no answers to the challenges we face and no chance of beating the SNP.

“The choice Scotland faces in just over nine weeks is more of the same with John Swinney and the SNP or a better future with Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour.”