Tories ‘sinking in polls’ as survey puts SNP in lead ahead of local elections

A new survey has shown momentum behind the SNP ahead of the upcoming local elections in Scotland.

The Survation poll, for Ballot Box Scotland, asked 1,002 Scots for their first, second and third preference voting intentions between March 24 and 28.

Scotland’s local government elections use the single transferable vote (STV) method, where voters rank their choices by order of preference.

The poll found that 44% of those asked intend to vote for the SNP in the ballot on May 5 – a plus-12 swing compared with the last local elections, which were held in 2017.

Some 23% (plus three) of respondents said they intend to vote for Scottish Labour, putting Anas Sarwar’s party in second place when it comes to first preferences.

Douglas Ross’s Scottish Conservatives found themselves third under this measure, with 18% of those surveyed saying they would back his party – a swing of minus seven compared with the last vote.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats then followed with 6% (minus one), while the Scottish Greens – currently in the Scottish Government under a co-operation agreement with the SNP – received a share of 3% (minus one).

Ahead of its first council election, the Alba Party – which was launched in 2021 before the Scottish Parliament elections – had 1% of the vote.

The Scottish Greens took the lead when it came to second preferences, with a share of 21%.

Scottish Labour sat in second again on this measure, while Alex Cole-Hamilton’s Scottish Liberal Democrats took the third spot with 12%.

Some 8% of respondents said they would select the SNP as their second choice, while 5% said they would give the Scottish Conservatives their vote.

Almost a quarter (24%) of those polled said they would choose not to use their second vote.

This figure jumps to 45% on the subject of a third preference, with Mr Cole-Hamilton’s party taking 13% of the share.

This is closely followed by the Scottish Greens with 12%, while Scottish Labour takes third with 10%.

The Scottish Conservatives sit at 4% of respondents intending to vote for them as a third preference.

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said the polling shows the Scottish Conservatives are “sinking in the polls” amid a cost-of-living crisis.

Mr Brown added: “These elections are vital, first to elect SNP councillors who will work tirelessly for local communities.

“May 5 is also an opportunity to make our voices heard, to send a message to the Tories who are failing families, and cast a verdict on Boris Johnson’s lies, cronyism, and moral failure.

“This latest poll shows that people in Scotland continue to put their trust in the SNP and that positive vision we have for our nation – but there is absolutely no room for complacency as the campaign heats up.

“We already know that turnout will be key in this election, which is why the SNP will continue to take nothing for granted – working for every single vote until polling day.

“Locking the Tories out of power in council chambers across Scotland means getting out to vote – and voting SNP.

“It’s hardly surprising to see the Tories sinking in the polls, with dodgy PPE contracts going to party donors, failure to act on the cost-of-living crisis and the scandal of Boris Johnson’s Downing Street parties still very much on the public’s mind.”