TG4/Ipsos B&A Donegal constituency poll says Fine Gael will struggle to retain seat

The results of a TG4/Ipsos B&A Donegal constituency poll revealed on Nuacht TG4 this evening show that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil could win two seats apiece in Donegal. 

It also reveals Fine Gael are unlikely to retain the seat won by Joe McHugh in 2020, while 100% Redress candidate, Charles Ward will struggle to win a seat. Independent Thomas Pringle is tipped to take the last of the five seats.

One percentage point separates the two Fianna Fáil candidates, Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher (13 per cent) and outgoing Minister for Agriculture, Food and Marine Charlie McConalogue (12 percent).   McConalogue, from Carndonagh, takes the Inishowen Fianna Fáil vote, and Gallagher, the west Donegal vote. McConlogue appears to be more transfer-friendly. 

In 2020, it went down to the wire between the two candidates, with McConalogue eventually claiming the Fianna Fáil seat at the expense of Gallagher.  

The poll shows continued strong support for Sinn Féin in Donegal, ahead of their national polling.  Pearse Doherty tops the poll well above the quota needed at 22 per cent.  Pádraig Mac Lochlainn is on 11 per cent of the vote and is also well positioned to retain his seat, with the assistance of transfers from Noel Jordan (2 per cent) who is running for Sinn Féin in the south of the constituency, and from Doherty’s surplus. 

The Donegal constituency is a five-seater, with a quota of 17%.  The TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted by phone on Friday and Saturday of last week (15th and 16th November), as nominations were closing.  Two other independent candidates, Vincent Bradley and Arthur Mc Guinness have since declared their candidature. 

Fine Gael may not win a seat in Donegal according to the poll results.  Joe McHugh won a seat for the party in 2020, but is not running in this election, and neither is his 2020 running mate Martin Harley. Standing for Fine Gael this time are John McNulty (6 per cent) and Senator Nikki Bradley (6 per cent). It looks unlikely that these first-time general election candidates will benefit from a ‘Harris hop’.  Transfers from a Fine Gael candidate could help secure a second seat for Fianna Fáil. 

Redress for homes damaged by defective blocks is a key issue in Donegal. Ward of the 100% Redress Party is polling at 6 per cent, and campaigners are likely to be disappointed with this poll result.  He wasn’t successful in the local elections in June, and it was speculated that 100% Redress would run one of the four elected councillors with a particular focus on the Inishowen peninsula. 

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Pringle (11 per cent) won a seat in 2020 with fewer first-preference votes than he registers in this Donegal poll.  He will be hopeful of retaining his seat on transfers and is very transfer-friendly in this poll as was his form in previous elections.

A sample of 543 attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points. The TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted by phone on Friday and Saturday of last week (15th and 16th November), just as the date for nominations was closing.