So, what next? TD’s departure poses interesting questions for Kilkenny and Fine Gael

It may not have come as a total surprise, but John Paul Phelan’s decision to exit politics after the next general election leaves a number of question marks both for Fine Gael and for this constituency.

The South Kilkenny TD has held a seat here since 2011, when he was just 32 years old. That was a big election for Fine Gael, with three TDs returned in Carlow-Kilkenny.

Phelan was one of the young up-and-coming TDs to back Leo Varadkar’s bid for the leadership of the party when Enda Kenny began to run out of road. His loyalty was rewarded with a junior ministry in 2017, but that came to an end in 2020 and he returned to the back benches.

He continued to hold on in hope, and prior to the latest reshuffle in December 2022, said he would be ready to join the ministerial ranks if called upon. It wasn’t to be, however.

His decision to call it a day will be a headache for the Fine Gael Party and leader Leo Varadkar. Three other TDs — Michael Creed, Brendan Griffin and Joe McHugh — have also said they will not run again.

Speculation abounds now as to who will replace Phelan here, because as it stands Fine Gael will have no sitting TD in Carlow-Kilkenny to contest the next election. It’s thought they may run three candidates again and would be disappointed not to return at least two of them.

Current Mayor of Kilkenny David Fitzgerald, in the city, is one name being mentioned as likely to make a tilt at a Dáil seat. He contested the 2015 by-election and had a strong showing, receiving 20.6% of first-preference votes, and losing out to the late Bobby Aylward (FF).

There is a question mark over former TD Pat Deering, based in Carlow, who lost out in 2020 and also failed to secure a compensatory Seanad seat. Will he run again?

The last general election was not a great one for Fine Gael, losing a sitting TD and returning just one of three candidates — Phelan. He was elected on the eight count, to the fourth seat; he polled 6,396 first preference votes.

Sitting TD Deering got just over 8% of the first preference vote, with 5,929. County councillor Patrick O’ Neill was also eliminated early on with 3,674 first preference votes, just under 5% of the share.

Perhaps best poised to go forward in the south of the county this time are sitting Fine Gael councillors Pat Dunphy and Fidelis Doherty. Both are experienced and capable public representatives. Both have also served terms as chair of the county council - including Cllr Doherty most recently just last year - while Cllr Dunphy was John Paul Phelan’s parliamentary assistant.

It’s all somewhat up in the air at the moment, however, as we await resolution of the representation issue that the constituency is facing. The constitution stipulates a TD for every 30,0000 people — and the population in Carlow/Kilkenny has risen beyond that point with its five TDs.

This means the boundaries may have to be redrawn, or a sixth TD could be added. But it’s understood there is little appetite for six-seater constituencies, and so there is speculation that it may be split into two three-seaters, or that part of the south of the county will go into Waterford.

The electoral commission is due to publish a report on the matter in August, and it is still accepting submissions up until May 10. No doubt there may be a few surprises before and after that.