Tipperary could revert to being a bellwether constituency under new Dáil boundary changes

As expected, the Boundary Commission has returned Tipperary to two Dáil constituencies - but not without causing some eyebrows to be raised by dragging in parts of Kilkenny to make up a new three-seater Tipperary North/Kilkenny North West constituency.

There was no surprise in returning the Newport/ Birdhill/Kilcomenty electoral areas to the constituency, taking it away from Limerick.

Tipperary’s population grew to 167,895 in 2022, an important factor in the Commission’s decision to divide it into two new three-seat constituencies.

It will also see the transfer to Tipperary North of 13 electoral areas from north west Kilkenny with a population of 6,431, the largest of which is Urlingford. The other areas are: Baunmore, Galmoy, Glashare, Johnstown, Lisdowney, Balleen, Clomantagh, Rathealy, Tubbridbrittain, Freshford, Ballybeagh and Tullaroan.

The new Tipperary North constituency will have a population of 87,799 while Tipperary South will have a population of 86,527.

Should the status quo remain following the last General Election, it should see the current sitting TDs elected - Michael Lowry, Jackie Cahill and Alan Kelly.

There is no doubt Lowry and Cahill will benefit from the Kilkenny blip, while Kelly will gain through the return of Newport. Both he and sitting councillor Fiona Bonfield ran an online campaign for its return which attracted thousands of signatures.

The difficulty now is for Sinn Féin and Fine Gael to identify candidates to try and break that status quo.

Sinn Féin does have an advantage in that it is represented by Limerick’s Deputy Maurice Quinlivan in the Newport area, and the party will be hoping that his support will transfer to whoever its candidate might be.

It has no sitting councillor in the Nenagh Municipal District, which covers north Tipperary, and will look to have that rectified in next June’s Local Elections.

There are some who believe that the party just has to find a candidate - any candidate - to take a seat because of its meteoric rise in opinion polls, but that may not translate into votes locally. They had a poor showing in the last Local Elections.

And the same criteria applies to Labour, languishing at three or four per cent in the polls but getting anything up to 10 per cent in Tipperary. Kelly got 19 per cent when Tipperary was a three-seater in 2011, but that was when the Fianna Fáil vote collapsed. He got just under 10 per cent in 2016 and 2020.

For Fine Gael, the task is harder, not having had a TD in Tipperary for the past two General Elections. With rumours of a number of high-profile councillors in both Nenagh and Thurles/ Roscrea/Templemore reported to be not standing next year, the task of even finding a candidate has just become harder.

Not helping them could be the prospect of at least one more high-profile local councillor running for the Dáil as an Independent.

Cllr Joe Hannigan, who has a huge network of contacts within the grassroots GAA, was unlucky to lose out when Lower Ormond was hived off into Offaly.

And Cllr Seamus Morris took over seven per cent of the vote in 2016 for Sinn Féin. He has since left the party but has been working on issues with the Rural Independent Group of TDs, which is led by Mattie McGrath.

What the changes mean is that Tipperary North could once again return to being a bellwether constituency for the makeup of the next Government.