The fate of the Tipperary footballers will be decided on Sunday

Tipperary meet Leitrim in Round Three of the Tailteann Cup at TEG Cusack Park in Mullingar at 1.45pm on Sunday needing a win to remain in the competition.

However, it’s not their performance on the pitch alone that will decide their fate, but the results of games across the four groups.

And following defeats in their first two games, to Sligo away and Kildare at home, manager Philly Ryan would relish the opportunity of at least two more games at championship level as he builds for the future. Tipperary, like Leitrim, go into the last round of games pointless.

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Mathematics will come into play once the final whistles blow at all eight games this weekend. Points, and then score difference, will decide which teams progress to the next stage – the top four teams will go directly into the quarter-finals, with the four top second placed teams, and the top three third placed teams going into the preliminary quarter finals, where they will be joined by New York.

Tipperary are out of contention to finish in the top two in their group, those spots already secured by Kildare and Sligo, who are both on four points after wins over Tipperary and Leitrim. So, their target is a third placed finish that is better than at least one other third placed team in the other groups.

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As things stand, that’s not so easy. Their score difference is minus 19, which means they have a lot of ground to make up on the other teams in second and third places going into the last round of games.

In Group 2, Offaly lead the way on four points, with Wicklow and Laois both on three. Wicklow would be expected to beat pointless Waterford at home. At the moment their points difference is just minus 3. Laois are away to Offaly and even if they lose it would take a huge defeat to knock them out of contention, as their points difference is plus 4.

In Group 4, Wexford and Carlow top the group on three points, with Fermanagh third on two with a plus 15 points difference. Wexford and Carlow are beyond Tipp’s reach, and even if Fermanagh were to lose at home to Wexford, it’s unlikely to be by enough to impact a 23 points difference with them and Tipperary.

That leaves Group Three as Tipp’s best chance to progress. Westmeath and Limerick are both on four points and are guaranteed the top two positions. They meet this week as do the bottom two teams, London and Antrim, who are both pointless and both with inferior points difference to Tipperary – London on minus 20 and Antrim on minus 24.

If that game ends level, and Tipperary win, then Tipperary advance. But if there’s a winner, it all comes down to the margin of victories. So, the target for Tipperary is to win, and by as much as possible to avoid London or Antrim wiping out their advantage.

You can be certain that manager Philly Ryan will be targeting a win in Mullingar before he starts taking out his calculator. His side lost their final four games in the league, beat Waterford in the first round of the championship, and then lost to Clare in the Munster semi-final before coming up short against Sligo and Kildare in the Tailteann Cup.

A win is the first priority on Sunday. He has already highlighted fallow periods during games when Tipperary struggle to score and that needs to be corrected. Leitrim took a heavy beating from Kildare, losing by 25 points, but improved against Sligo, going down by just four, and despite their own difficulties this season they will fancy their chances against Tipp.

Tipperary are likely to be without corner back Jack Harney for the game, as he recovers from a hamstring injury sustained against Sligo.

Top marksman Sean O’Connor was taken off at half-time against Kildare, Ryan explaining that he had picked up a little knock during the previous week and wasn’t moving as well as he can. Ryan didn’t want to take a chance with him for the second half but he should be available this weekend.

The Clonmel Commercials man will be crucial, as will team captain Steven O’Brien, whose drive and energy, and ability to kick two pointers from play and placed balls, is so vital to the team.

Cian Smith is another specialist at knocking over scores from outside the arc, and with Under 20 star Daithí Hogan making an impression since his promotion to the seniors, Tipp should have enough firepower to win if they maintain the effort over the seventy minutes.

Then it will be time to take out the calculators.