ELECTION PREVIEW: Change coming as Offaly is stand alone constituency in General Election for the first time

UNDECIDED voters will now be concentrating their minds as the trip to the polling stations looms for what is an historic general election in Offaly on Friday.

For the first time since the foundation of the State, Offaly is a stand-alone Dail Eireann constituency and it will send three TDs to Leinster House.

Substantial growth in the national population, of a kind which the Free State's founders surely dreamed about in the early 1920s, has finally resulted in the ties that bound Offaly to Laois for so long to be sundered, perhaps for good.

The boundaries of the five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency have been tinkered with previously as various commissions struggled with the balancing acts required to ensure reasonably fair representation in the Dail across the entire country.

Of course, the most dramatic change was just two elections ago, in 2016, when Offaly was separated from Laois but needed the addition of a slice of north Tipperary to create a viable three seater.

From the viewpoint of the political chattering classes in north Tipp that transfer was a most unwelcome move but it proved to be just a temporary little arrangement because Laois-Offaly was resurrected by the map makers in 2020.

On this occasion, all of Offaly is a constituency by itself and that guarantees that the people of the county will be represented by three TDs, a gain of one from the current situation.

Over many decades the five seats in Laois-Offaly have swung 3-2 from Laois to Offaly and back again, with both counties, for the most part, staying steadfast in their loyalty to the two dominant political parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

Offaly produced the first and so far only TD to rise to the highest government office, Clara Fianna Fail man Brian Cowen, Taoiseach from 2008 to 2011.

And one of Laois-Offaly's legendary political figures, Laois man Oliver J Flanagan, a one-time Fine Gael minister, was returned to the Dail election after election by a fiercely loyal following.

Brian Cowen's 27-year Dail career began in 1984 when he won the seat left vacant by the sudden death of his father Ber and the family dynasty was maintained by Barry until his election to the European Parliament this summer.

In Laois, Oliver J's son Charlie Flanagan, a significant vote catcher in Offaly like his father, and a senior minister from 2014 to 2020, is aged 68 and is not seeking re-election.

This will be the first time since 1965 when voters in Offaly will not see the Cowen surname on the ballot paper.

It's worth recalling that Offaly had its Fine Gael dynasty too, begun by Birr man Tom Enright with his election to the Dail in 1969 and continued by his daughter Olwyn with her victories in 2002 and 2007.

So, regardless of who prevails on Friday, this general election represents a significant shift in Offaly, a changing of the guard in an altered county and country.

Of the 11 candidates putting themselves before the people, just one is a serving Dail deputy: Carol Nolan, the Cadamstown schoolteacher who wrote her own chapter in the county's political history by winning a seat for Sinn Fein in the three-seat Offaly/north Tipperary constituency in 2016.

She split from the party because of her pro-life stance and contested the 2020 Laois-Offaly election as an independent and returned to the Dail.

Barry Cowen made it three election triumphs in a row four years ago and was appointed Minister for Agriculture until a row over a previous drink-driving ban resulted in him being sacked by then Taoiseach Micheal Martin.

With his hopes of a long career on the Fianna Fail front benches apparently dashed he opted for Europe this year and was comfortably elected.

Given that he had received an enormous 12,366 first preferences in the 2016 election his departure to Brussels left Offaly's dominant party seeking a replacement.

Party members plumped for Tony McCormack, the Tullamore businessman who came into the convention having polled 1,326 first preferences in the local elections, a tally which helped Fianna Fail win four of the seven seats in the Tullamore Electoral Area.

But fielding just one candidate was always unlikely for a party which relies on Offaly to back Fianna Fail in much greater numbers than the national average.

Eddie Fitzpatrick, the Cloneyhurke farmer, a former Progressive Democrat member, a two-time general election candidate, as an independent in 2011 and for Fianna Fail in 2016, publicly declared that he wanted that second slot.

He had been the latest of a number of Fianna Fail candidates attempting to regain the north Offaly Fianna Fail seat held between 1969 and 1997 by Bracknagh man Ger Connolly.

Fitzpatrick received 2,544 votes at his first attempt and 3,394 second time around in 2016. Just 170 votes separated him from the winner Carol Nolan on the last count.

Peter Ormond, the councillor from Shinrone, ran for the Dail in 2020 and received 4,073 first number ones, but that proved too few to accompany Barry Cowen to Leinster House.

Fitzpatrick believed his 1,998 votes in the June local elections would provide a firm foundation for another tilt at the Dail but in the finish neither Ormond nor Fitzpatrick got the nod from party headquarters.

Instead, they opted for a new face, Edenderry nurse Claire Murray, who had won a seat on the County Council at the first attempt this June.

Gender quota considerations were clearly a factor in the decision and party strategists wished to make a break from the past but the law of unintended consequences came into play and Fitzpatrick quit Fianna Fail and is mounting a third bid for the Dail, this time as a non-party candidate.

Fitzpatrick's dramatic move means that voters seeking an option beyond Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in the north-east of Offaly now have a local political heavyweight to consider, just as those in the south do because of the presence of Carol Nolan.

The Edenderry area's desire for its own TD is further manifest in the shape of Fergus McDonnell, a former Fianna Fail and PD man who is now a councillor for the country's newest party, Independent Ireland.

The field in that part of the county is further populated by Senator Pippa Hackett.

The Geashill farmer surprisingly surfed the green wave to a council seat in 2019, was a somewhat distant but nonetheless creditable sixth in the Laois-Offaly five-seater four years ago and was appointed a super-junior minister in the current Government.

Her husband Mark was co-opted to the council seat after his wife's elevation to the Oireachtas but he lost out in the June local poll and Pippa Hackett's prospects in the general election look poor.

For Fine Gael the Kinnitty councillor, publican and glamping operator John Clendennen is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Tom Enright, Olwyn Enright and Marcella Corcoran Kennedy.

Clendennen's father Percy was a Fine Gael councillor in Offaly so he has the party political pedigree. Nonetheless his path to the nomination for the Dail race was not a smooth one.

Neil Feighery, poll topper with 1,962 votes in the Tullamore Electoral Area five months ago – albeit he was the sole Fine Gael candidate - was the other obvious contender for the general election.

The gods of geography appeared to be in favour of the Killoughey man too but the numbers went against him in the selection convention so it is Cllr Clendennen who must traverse the county hoping to get the backing of all Fine Gael voters, plus many of the floaters.

But first in his backyard he is up against the only incumbent in the race, Carol Nolan. With a reputation as a TD with a tremendous appetite for constituency work, plus the perceived advantage of being an independent, she is a formidable local opponent.

However anyone who tries to argue that two TDs in south Offaly is an unrealistic scenario should remember 2002 when Coolderry farmer Tom Parlon won a seat in the Dail at the first attempt for the Progressive Democrats and Olwyn Enright retained the Fine Gael seat vacated by her father Tom.

What of Sinn Fein, neck and neck with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in the national opinion polls this week? Nolan's departure from the party was followed by a disastrous council election in 2019 where Sinn Fein lost all three of its seats, one in each of the Tullamore, Birr and Edenderry Electoral Areas.

A rebuild and rethink was imperative and the party made an Offaly comeback in this year's local elections, regaining the three seats and opting for the new Tullamore councillor, Aoife Masterson as its Dail candidate.

Some seasoned political observers were strongly tipping Masterson for a general election victory when Sinn Fein soared in the opinion polls but just a few months later few are favouring her to be in the shake-up for a seat.

That said, some Fianna Fail activists argued that their party had no option but to select a Tullamore town-based candidate to cut off any possible route to the Dail for the Sinn Fein woman.

Local elections and general elections are treated differently by voters. The turnout for the Dail contest is usually higher and people are more likely to vote along party lines.

Nonetheless, all candidates have been examining the results of the County Council election in June for possible pointers towards the outcome on Friday.

Fianna Fail received a 39% share of the first preference vote, nearly double the nearest challenger, Fine Gael, which had a 20.5% slice.

Sinn Fein was next on 10% and the remainder was split between Independent Ireland, Social Democrats, Greens, other small parties and independents.

Aontu, founded by former Meath Sinn Fein TD Peadar Toibin after he parted company with the party over abortion, made its debut in Offaly elections in June and has a candidate in the general election too, Maureen Ward, foster carer and Traveller community advocate.

The county which had a Labour TD in Tullamore man Pat Gallagher between 1992 and 1997 does not even have a candidate from that party on this occasion.

Clare Claffey, Banagher, was a likely runner for the Social Democrats before losing her council seat in June.

The flag of the left will be flown by Keishia Taylor of People Before Profit – Solidarity. A Dublin-based researcher who works in education, in 2016 she joined ROSA, a socialist feminist movement.

The name at the top of the ballot paper on Friday might be unfamiliar to many voters but this will be Mike Boylan's second election.

The Banagher bus hire operator is running for the Dail as an independent having done the same in the Birr Electoral Area in June where he received 483 first preferences, a 4% vote share.

A notable absentee from this general election is Kilcormac man John Leahy. He was first elected to Offaly County Council in 2009, ran for the Dail as an independent in 2011, for Renua in 2016, and again as an independent in 2020.

Though the auctioneer and former Offaly GAA coach was returned to the County Council comfortably this year he decided not to resume his pursuit of a Dail seat.

His general election first preference vote fluctuated between a high of 4,882 in 2011 and a low of 3,463 in 2020. Those votes are much coveted by the contestants this week.

The safest bets for success this weekend are Carol Nolan and Tony McCormack, followed by John Clendennen, though the Fine Gael man knows only too well that his party's Offaly candidate four years ago, Marcella Corcoran Kennedy, polled only 4,519 number ones.

The days of one candidate racking up massive numbers, namely Brian Cowen (19,102 votes in 2007) and Barry Cowen (12,366 in 2016) are likely gone so there isn't even consensus on the identity of the poll topper.

The quota (the number of votes needed for election) will depend on the size of the electorate and the turnout but it could be around 11,000.

Fianna Fail received 1.4 quotas in 2016 and came within a whisker of a second seat. The prize went to Carol Nolan whose first preference vote was less than half a quota. The magic of transfers edged her over the line.

Nolan and McCormack will be the front runners for two of the seats and it should be advantage Clendennen for the third.

The Kinnitty councillor seemed assured of a relatively straightforward passage as recently as a couple of weeks ago but his party has been having a poor campaign nationally.

Both McCormack and Clendennen have concerns about limited name recognition across the county. By contrast, Nolan has a broader reach, establishing herself with voters first on election to the council in 2014 and building her identity with the Rural Independent Group of Dail TDs.

Fianna Fail have not given up hope of a second seat even after Fitzpatrick gutted their carefully laid plan.

If Fitzpatrick or Claire Murray do well in the first count (and be mindful too that Fergus McDonnell says he continues to get good feedback across the county) and one of them hangs in long enough for other eliminations in the north Offaly area to nudge them along, it could be a close run count in Birr Community School on Saturday.

Polling stations across the county will open at 7am on Friday, November and voting will continue until 10pm.

The first of 112 ballot boxes will be opened on Saturday morning at 9am at the count centre in Birr Community School and reliable tally figures giving an indication of the likely outcome should be available by lunchtime. However, it could be late on Saturday, or even into Sunday, before all three seats are filled.