OPINION: Sinn Fein sure thing to lead next Government? Not necessarily so!

AND so another poll showing Sinn Fein streaking ahead in the popularity stakes.

There it was at the weekend: “Sinn Féin continues to be the most popular party in the country according to the latest Sunday Independent/ Ireland Thinks poll. The opposition party is up 1 per cent to 36 per cent, with Fine Gael falling by a point to 21 per cent. Fianna Fáil is also down a point to 16 per cent, while coalition partner the Green Party fell from 4 per cent to just 2 per cent.”

All over bar the shouting then, where the next general election is concerned? Not! Surely the findings of these Sunday opinion polls no longer reveal anything new when it comes to the most popular political party and the most popular political leader in Ireland today. It’s all a bit 'same ole, same ole' by now. Hardly news anymore. What would be new is something along the lines of 'Sinn Fein no longer most popular party. Shock. Horror.'

What is being missed in this repetitive story is that even as Sinn Fein remains the most popular party in these polls again and again it still is not more popular than the Government (for better or worse!). Sinn Fein is currently at 36 per cent in the polls, but the Coalition is at 39 per cent (FG 21 per cent, FF 16 per cent, Greens 2 per cent).

And the next Government too will be a Coalition, because the days of single party Government in this state ended in 1989 when Fianna Fail went into Coalition for the first time (with the Progressive Democrats). No one claims, despite its excellent performance in opinion poll after opinion poll, that Sinn Fein will get an overall majority at the next general election.

That means it will have to persuade one of the other parties, at least, to join it in Government. Of which we can be certain of only one thing - it will not be Fine Gael. That current major Coalition party has ruled itself out of going into Government with Sinn Fein.

Not so Fianna Fail. Indeed, Fianna Fail are most likely to be king makers after the next general election and indications are that it is willing to talk to Sinn Fein in that context. Even Taoiseach Micheal Martin, who opposed going into Government with Sinn Fein after the last general election in 2020, has indicated since that he would be willing to consider the matter if he is leader of Fianna Fail at the next general election. A big 'if' that is too.

Yes, it is likely Fianna Fail will suffer at the next general election. It holds two key ministries which will determine how this Government fares then – Housing and Health. Both have been targeted by Sinn Fein in the past week alone, both by one of that party’s most able front benchers, Eoin O’Broin.

He warned Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly last week about revelations that he lobbied for tax breaks for landlords over more than four years. Mr Donnelly, who describes himself as an “accidental landlord”, had called for different tax treatment for accidental landlords in the Dáil.

Mr Ó Broin said the “fact he had such a repeated series of lobbies on not on a single occasion did he say, ‘by the way, this is something I could potentially benefit from’. I think that is a problem.”

He said that at a minimum there should be a declaration in the Dáil where a politician finds themselves in this position.

And in an Irish Times article at the weekend he accused Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien of refusing to scale up public housing delivery to meet social and affordable need. He said Mr O’Brien had been “Minister for Housing for two years. His housing plan was released a year ago this week. In the 12 months since our housing crisis has gone from bad to worse.” The usual stuff in politics, of course. It means nothing where the composition of the next Government is concerned.

It has been said by some commentators that Fine Gael is ready for opposition, that after 11 years (since 2011) it is tired of Government. Whoever said that knows little of politics or politicians. Former Progressive Democrat leader Mary Harney once said “the worst day in Government, is still better than the best day in opposition.”

All politicians, with the possible exception of those in People Before Profit, would agree. They are in politics to implement policy and the place you are most likely to do that is in Government.

Besides, Fianna Fail was in Government (on its own!) for two periods of 16 years, from 1932 to 1948 and again from 1957 to 1973. So, dismiss this nonsense of Fine Gael being tired of office. And Fianna Fail, which has long considered itself the natural party of Government in Ireland, is never tired of office.

Both parties will most likely lose seats at the next general election – that is the fate of most Governments – but the probability is that they will retain a majority of their current seats – FF 36, FG 33, Greens 10. Of the three Government parties, the Greens are likely to suffer most.

Theirs is the most volatile electorate. Following its first period in Government, from 2007, it lost all its six seats in the 2011 general election. It gained two in the 2016 general election, and 10 in the 2020 general election. Volatility is in the nature of that party.

This is much less the case where the other two Coalition parties are concerned. Both have very solid, significant bases and both are transfer friendly, something that is even more likely at the next general election when it comes to cross-party voting as they have now served successfully in Government together.

Sinn Fein’s problem is that it is not transfer friendly and, even in context where it may have the most number 1 votes in a constituency, this does not necessarily translate into a seat under our proportional representation system. It just is not getting enough number 2s.

Essentially, the point I am making is that it is far from a foregone conclusion that Sinn Fein will be in Government after the next election. It may well be if that is what Fianna Fail decides. And Fianna Fail will be particularly determined not to be in Opposition as this would dilute still further its identity out of office alongside Fine Gael.

It might be argued that Sinn Fein could cobble together a Government then alongside Labour, the Social Democrats and likeminded Independents. The problem there is that, though there were 21 Independent TDs elected in 2020, most are from the same gene pool as Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. They are unlikely to rush, either individually or as a block, into the warm embrace of Sinn Fein.

It is much more likely that the next general election will produce a Coalition of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour, and a block of Independents.

In the meantime the current Coalition has approximately two and a half years to make a real dent on the building of houses as that, more than anything else, will determine the outcome of the next general election. Indeed, it is hard to see how a change of Government will make any difference to the rate at which houses are built.

That said, how housing, health, and the current cost of living crisis are handled will determine the shape of our next Government.