Gap between SNP and Labour shrinks by 17% in one year, poll suggests

The SNP lead over Labour has dropped from 21% last year to 4%, a poll suggests.

Anas Sarwar’s party has been on a steady upward trajectory since the leader took over just months before the Holyrood election in 2021.

A poll by Savanta for the Scotsman spoke to 1,018 people between June 9 and 14 – which covers both before and after the arrest of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon.

Ms Sturgeon was subsequently released without charge pending further investigation as part of the probe into the SNP’s finances.

According to the survey of voting intentions for the next Westminster election, 38% said they would back the SNP, 34% would vote Labour, 17% support the Tories, and 7% would back the Liberal Democrats.

In a poll by the same company last June, the SNP boasted 46% support compared to 25% for Labour.

At Holyrood – with the next election expected in 2026 – the SNP remain in first place, gaining increasing support by 1% in the constituency vote since March, but dropping 5% in the same time-frame on the regional list, with support now at 40% and 28% respectively.

Support for Scottish Labour in constituencies also rose by 1% to 33%, but dropped by two points to 28% – matching the SNP – on the regional list.

The Scottish Conservatives dropped 3% to 16% in the constituency vote and remained at the same level as the previous poll on 18% in the regions.

The Lib Dems increased support in both votes, rising by 1% in constituencies and 4% in the regional vote, to 8% and 11% respectively.

The Scottish Greens increased support in the regional vote by three points to 13%.

Support for independence rose by 1% among decided voters, with 49% saying they would back the Yes campaign compared to 51% who would vote No.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said the poll shows the “tides are turning” in her party’s favour.

“While the SNP and the Tories are mired in scandal and infighting, Scottish Labour is focused on the priorities of the Scottish people,” she said.

“Only Labour can kick the Tories out of power, tackle the cost-of-living crisis and bring our country together.

“Scottish Labour – the change that Scotland needs.”

Speaking to the PA news agency at the British-Irish Council summit in Jersey on Friday, First Minister Humza Yousaf said he was confident his party could reclaim the ground lost to Labour as a result of the SNP’s internal turmoil.

“I think by anybody’s objective estimation, the last number of weeks, even couple of months, have been some of the most difficult the SNP has faced in its modern history,” he said.

“It’s not surprising that has resulted in some challenges for the party.

“Notwithstanding that, the poll that I saw this morning continues to put us in the lead for Westminster voting intentions, it puts us considerably in the lead Holyrood voting intentions.

“There have been challenging times, but what I’m focused on is making sure as First Minister of the country I deliver for the people of Scotland.”

Asked if he could bring back the voters that have moved away from the party, Mr Yousaf said: “Oh yes, I’m absolutely hopeful and confident and that will be part of my role.

“Of course we’re 12 to 18 months – anyone’s guess, really – from a general election, but I’ll be working every day to make sure I do everything I can to not just win back anybody who may have shifted their support, but to make sure we grow our support as best we possibly can.”