Scotland misses target on reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Scotland has missed its target for cutting harmful greenhouse gases which are driving climate change.

New Scottish Government figures show emissions fell 49.9% between the baseline period and 2021, but the target for the year was a 51.1% drop.

Climate campaigners warn the failure to hit the interim figure puts the target to reach net-zero by 2045 at risk, but Net Zero Secretary Mairi McAllan said the results show a post-Covid rebound that was expected.

The figure measures seven gases and the baseline period is 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride.

Source emissions for the basket of seven gases were estimated at 41.6 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent in 2021, up 2.4% from 40.6 in 2020.

Increased domestic transport emissions, up 10.7% between 2020 and 2021, and a 7.2% rise in residential emissions are driving the increase.

Greenhouse gases released by international aviation and shipping fell by 15.2% in the same period, while energy emissions dropped 9.2% and business fell by 2.8%.

Ms McAllan said: “To miss Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of 51.1% so narrowly – by just 1.2 percentage points – is of course disappointing, but it also demonstrates that we are not far behind where our world-leading targets dictate we should be.

“While the 2021 results show a rebound from 2020, this was not unexpected given how much the 2020 position was affected by pandemic lockdowns.

“Indeed, Scotland is not unique in experiencing an increase. UK emissions rebounded by 4.4% over the period, compared to 2.4% in Scotland.

“We knew to expect an increase in transport emissions as a result of Covid restrictions easing and we also expected that a particularly cold winter was likely to see an increase in domestic heating emissions.

“The race to net-zero is one that we must all win. It will continue to be driven by Government, but it cannot happen without all of us – individuals, communities and businesses – taking steps as part of a national effort to tackle the climate emergency.”

She called on both the UK Government and Scottish Parliament to work with the Scottish Government “as we introduce bold, ambitious policies to support our journey and enable us to reach our, rightly, stretching targets”.

Mike Robinson, chair of Stop Climate Chaos Scotland (SCCS), said meeting the emissions target in 2020 was a “hollow success” achieved only through lockdown restrictions.

He added: “Now for 2021 we’ve seen a rebound in emissions despite continued pandemic effects. Every missed target means more effort is required the following year, making it harder to meet our crucial goals.

“We need to see bold new action to drive down emissions in the worst polluting sectors including transport, housing and agriculture in the forthcoming Climate Change Plan, with additional investment financed by making polluters pay.

“Cross-party support in the Scottish Parliament committed to the 2030 and 2045 emissions targets. Now they need to commit to the action and money necessary, or their legacy will be one of failure.”

Jamie Livingstone, Oxfam Scotland head, also called on the Scottish Government to make polluters pay, adding: “The Scottish Government’s latest failure to meet its own annual climate target is yet another reckless misstep in a very dangerous dance with climate destruction: one that threatens all of our futures, but particularly those of people living in poverty.”

Scottish Conservative net-zero spokesman Liam Kerr said: “If there was one policy area you would expect the Green tail to be wagging the yellow SNP dog, then it would be on the climate emergency. Instead, the Greens have sold out environmentalism for nationalism, and targets have failed to be hit.

“The SNP-Green Government cannot continue to deflect from their failures on such a serious issue. Time is fast running out to achieve ambitious net-zero targets, and it is time we finally see ministers take the action required to do so.”

Green climate spokesman Mark Ruskell said the statistics are “not good enough”, but claimed his party has started to “shift the dial” on climate action through the powersharing agreement with the SNP.

He accused opposition parties of opposing policies needed to tackle climate change, adding: “At every step of the way we face massive resistance from opposition parties who seem to think that the climate emergency can be tackled through wishful thinking.”

The Liberal Democrats said: “These figures show that the Scottish Government are serial failures when it comes to hitting our national climate change targets.”