Labour now two points behind SNP, poll suggests

Scottish Labour is just two percentage points behind the SNP, a new poll suggests.

A survey by Survation of 1,022 people in Scotland from August 15 to 18 for consultancy True North found Labour on 29% in Westminster voting intention, compared to the SNP on 31%.

A projection by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice forecasts Labour and the SNP would both secure 24 seats at the next general election – expected next year – if the survey result is replicated.

This would represent a drop of 20 seats for the SNP and an increase of 23 for Labour.

At Holyrood, the survey results show the SNP would retain its place as the largest party, with 33% in the constituency vote and 26% in the list vote.

Labour would return as the official opposition, with 28% of the constituency vote and 25% of the list vote.

According to Sir John, if the result was borne out after the Holyrood election in 2026, the SNP would drop 15 seats to give the party a total of 49, while Labour would gain 20 – meaning a rise to 42 MSPs.

The Conservatives are forecast in the polling to drop to 17 MSPs from 31.

The Scottish Greens – who are currently in a powersharing agreement with the SNP which has seen its leaders given ministerial office – would rise from eight to 10 MSPs, while the Scottish Liberal Democrats would go from four seats to 11.

But despite the suggested downturn in the fortunes of the SNP, support for independence among decided voters remains high, with 48% backing a Yes vote and 52% voting No.

Sir John said: “The SNP has had little success so far in shaking Labour off its tail.

“As a result, the party faces a continuing risk of losing a significant number of Westminster seats in next year’s UK general election.

“The party’s efforts are seemingly not being helped by Humza Yousaf’s apparent difficulty in making a favourable impression on the Scottish public.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said it is now “neck and neck” between her party and the SNP.

“This latest poll shows once more that change is coming to Scotland with Scottish Labour,” she said.

“While the only poll that matters is polling day, it’s clear that after a decade of SNP dominance it’s now neck and neck between the SNP and Scottish Labour.

“While the SNP offer only division and sleaze, Scottish Labour is offering the change and fresh start that Scotland needs.

SNP deputy Westminster leader Mhairi Black said: “We are pleased that another poll continues to show the SNP as Scotland’s leading party, but we take nothing for granted and will continue to work hard to earn people’s trust.

“Once again, support for independence remains rock solid as the only way to get rid of Tory governments we don’t vote for in Scotland for good, and build a stronger economy and fairer society.”