Success of minimum alcohol pricing eroded by inflation and pandemic, study finds

Inflation and the pandemic have eroded the effectiveness of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol in Scotland, according to an academic study.

Sheffield University’s alcohol research group found MUP, which was set at 50p per unit in 2018, is now equivalent to 41p per unit due to inflation.

It comes after Public Health Scotland’s evaluation found MUP has had a “positive impact”, despite limited evidence of this reaching low-income alcoholics.

The university study found people who drank less than the UK guidelines of 14 units per week reduced their alcohol consumption during the pandemic on average.

However those who drank more than this increased their consumption in 2020.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the university’s Centre for Health and Related Research, said: “We now have the evidence to demonstrate that MUP has worked to reduce alcohol harm, but high inflation means 50p per unit in 2023 is considerably less effective than 50p was when MUP was first introduced in Scotland five years ago.

“Our new analysis suggests that alcohol consumption is 2.2% higher than it would have been if the MUP level had risen in line with inflation since it was introduced.

“Failing to link the MUP level to inflation means that the level would need to rise from 50p to 61p just to maintain the same effectiveness at reducing harm.

“Consideration should also be given to the effects of inflation in the future to ensure that the positive impacts of the policy are not eroded over time.

“Maintaining an effective MUP level is even more important since the pandemic, during which we saw an increase in the alcohol consumption of heavier drinkers and a corresponding rise in alcohol-specific deaths.”

The study also examined the UK Government’s changes to alcohol duty on August 1 this year.

This was estimated to have created a small reduction in alcohol consumption.

Mr Angus said: “Our new report estimates that the reforms will lead to 220 fewer deaths over 20 years.

“This figure is around 10 times smaller than the estimated impact of raising the MUP level by 10p (2,483 fewer deaths).”

In response to the report, Laura Mahon, deputy chief executive of Alcohol Focus Scotland, said: “In 2012 there was a broad consensus across the Parliament about the desperate need for bold action to address the scale of our alcohol problem in Scotland and recognition that minimum unit pricing (MUP) had to be a cornerstone of our approach.

“With the recent rise in alcohol deaths, and the impact of the pandemic, we need the Scottish Parliament to come together once again to renew and reinvigorate MUP.

“It is not enough for MUP to be retained. Unless there is support to increase the price, the positive effects we’ve seen will be reversed, condemning hundreds more people to unnecessary suffering and loss.”