Scotland’s winter death toll highest for more than 30 years, figures show

Scotland’s winter death toll last year was the highest for more than 30 years, figures show.

There were 24,427 deaths registered between December 2022 and March 2023, data from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) showed – 11% more than the previous winter, with this total the highest it has been since 1989-90.

This included a total of 4,137 additional winter deaths – the seasonal increase in mortality that occurs between December and March.

This is calculated by comparing the death total for this period with the average number of deaths for August to November and April to July – the two four-month periods immediately before and after the winter.

This seasonal increase in mortality was “considerably higher” for 2022-23 than the previous year, NRS said, but was lower than both the winters of 2017-18 and 2020-21.

Daniel Burns, NRS’s head of vital events statistics, said: “Today’s figures show that deaths in winter are at their highest level since 1989-90.”

He added: “The longer-term downward trend shows a recent increase in winter deaths, which may be partly driven by Scotland’s ageing population.

“Winter months generally see more deaths than other times of the year, however, the seasonal increase in winter mortality fluctuates year on year.

“Older age groups are consistently the most affected by increased mortality in winter. For people aged 85 and over, there were 29% more winter deaths compared to 12% in the under-65 population.”

Campaigners at Age Scotland said the scale of deaths last year was “extremely concerning”.

A spokesperson for the charity added: “The combination of the cost-of-living crisis, pressures on health and social care services, and spikes in flu and Covid-19 have had a severe impact, particularly on older people.

“We’re aware that many older people have faced difficulty accessing the health and social care they need, which may have led to conditions becoming more severe due to delays in diagnosis and treatment.

“Many have also struggled to meet the increasing cost of heating their homes to a safe level, increasing the risk of serious medical emergencies such as heart attacks and strokes.”

Labour said the “devastating” number of deaths last winter was linked to the “twin crises engulfing Scotland”, blaming both problems in the NHS and “soaring bills” for the increase.

Scottish Labour health spokesperson Jackie Baillie said: “Last winter our health and social care system was on the brink of collapse while soaring bills forced people to make impossible choices between heating and eating.

“Both of Scotland’s governments were missing in action during the most deadly winter in 30 years – the SNP and the Tories must both act now to ensure this catastrophe doesn’t repeat itself.”

Meanwhile, Scottish Conservative health spokesperson Dr Sandesh Gulhane said the “shocking rise in deaths across Scotland last winter is truly awful”.

The MSP, who is also a GP, added: “The extreme increase in fatalities – the highest number in over 30 years – is appalling, and deeply worrying as the NHS is bracing to face what is feared will be the worst winter ever.

“These tragedies are symptomatic of just how sick the system has become under the SNP. All too often, suffering patients are paying the price for the SNP’s shambolic mismanagement of our health.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “Our thoughts and condolences are with all those who have lost a loved one.

“While seasonal variations in winter mortality fluctuate year-on-year, it is well known that Scotland’s communities experience health, quality of life and even life expectancy differently across our society.

“Scotland’s new dementia strategy sets out a 10-year vision for dementia in Scotland. It recognises there are inequalities in who experiences dementia and the importance of people being able to access a timely diagnosis, and post-diagnostic support that is right for them and their carers.

“Our Heart Disease Action Plan outlines the actions we are taking to minimise preventable heart disease and ensure that everyone with suspected heart disease has timely and equitable access to diagnosis treatment and care.

“We continue to work with our partners, including Public Health Scotland and National Records of Scotland, to understand what is needed at a national and regional level to support local, preventative action to drive improvements in population health.”

Dr Iain Kennedy, chair of BMA Scotland, said that while the plan focuses on the “right areas”, it lacks “real substance”.

He added: “The whole-system approach as outlined in the plan is welcome, acknowledging that the problems are not confined to simply one area of our NHS and recognising that there are issues across the entire system – but this cannot be just about winter.

“We are in a year-round crisis with our NHS and workforce planning is abysmal.

“We simply do not have the staff – be that doctors, nurses or allied health professionals – to cope with the rising levels of demand and we are heading into what I expect will be our worst winter ever.”