Climate change could see twice as many droughts in Scotland by 2050 – study

The number of droughts in Scotland could almost double by 2050, researchers have found.

Scientists studying the impact of climate change on water availability for farming and whisky said by the middle of the century, the mean drought frequency could rise from 0.33 to 0.65 events per year.

Across 23 catchment areas studied, the mean drought duration was predicted to rise from 31 to 51 days in the same period.

Research commissioned at Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters, at the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen, found some catchments could face more restrictions on using their water.

The report predicted “significant drought events” in the catchment area of the river Eden in Fife could rise from one in every five–10 years to one every year by 2050.

Dr Miriam Glendell, who co-led the work at the Hutton, said: “We found that, for many, water scarcity is already an increasing issue. At critical times of the year, even short periods of water shortage could lead to vegetable and fruit crop failure.

“Some are already taking measures to adapt, particularly in the distilling sector, where technical advances could help reduce their need for water for cooling, but many could be at risk if they don’t take more action.

“Our work suggests more information would help them, about resources, but also adaptation strategies they can take, as well as help funding these and collaborating across catchments over resources.”

Recommendations in the report include using more efficient irrigation methods, increasing water harvesting, and storage of water during wetter months.

Improved co-ordination of water resources use across catchments, increased monitoring and provision of adaptation advice and funding are also recommended.

Scotland’s Rural College, the University of Aberdeen and the British Geological Survey were also involved with research.

Ruth Taylor, agriculture and land use manager at WWF Scotland, said: “The findings of this report will come as no surprise to farmers and crofters.

“However, our research shows that by adopting nature-friendly farming practices the worst impacts can be avoided.

“Activities like reducing synthetic fertiliser use, increasing crop rotations, and reducing tillage enhances soil health and fertility while increasing biodiversity.

“This means most farm businesses can remain profitable and resilient to the frequency of extreme weather events, including drought, caused by climate change.”