Government should permit indyref if public opinion settles behind Yes – report

The Scottish Secretary should be mandated to assess public opinion and permit a referendum if it looks likely independence will secure majority support, a report has suggested.

Ex-Scottish Labour leader Kez Dugdale and former Yes Scotland strategist Stephen Noon made the proposal in a report they co-authored for Glasgow University’s Centre for Public Policy.

Their report marked 10 years since the independence referendum and 25 years since devolution and discussed a number of constitutional issues.

It noted that there is an existing mechanism which mandates the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to call a border poll if there is majority support for joining the Republic of Ireland.

The report says the Scotland Secretary – a post currently held by Labour’s Ian Murray – “would have a legal duty to permit a referendum” if it looked likely independence would have majority support.

It says the criteria for this decision would be a matter for agreement between the two governments, with a range of measures such as opinion polling and election results used to gauge the public mood.

The report argues that for the UK to be seen as a “voluntary union” it must have a codified mechanism for constituent nations to leave if they wish.

Both authors discussed their paper on the Holyrood Sources podcast, an episode of which was released on Wednesday.

Ms Dugdale accepted that political parties on either side of the debate will be unlikely to adopt her proposals but she said she hoped it would spark a debate and move the constitutional question forward.

She said: “I don’t expect either party or any party to adopt this tomorrow.

“What I’m asking is that they don’t kill it tomorrow either, that they let it breathe, they think about it.

“They ask themselves, ‘if not this, what?'”

Mr Noon suggested the trigger for another referendum should not simply be an SNP or pro-independence victory in elections but rather sustained public opinion with a clear majority in favour of independence.

In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled the Scottish Parliament does not have power to legislate for another referendum on Scottish independence.

Earlier this month, First Minister John Swinney said he believes Scotland is closer to independence now than it was a decade ago.

In response to the report, a UK Government spokeswoman said: “We have reset the relationship between the UK and Scottish Government, ensuring that Scottish people and their communities are now rightly back at the beating heart of our missions to deliver for working people.

“People want their two governments working side by side – delivering higher growth, safer streets, cleaner energy, and greater opportunities – and that is our full focus.”