Smoking will cause about 29,400 cancer cases over next five years – research

Smoking will cause about 29,400 cancer cases in Scotland over the next five years if current trends continue, according to new analysis.

The study by Cancer Research UK projects cases of cancer caused by smoking before the end of the parliamentary term, which is assumed to be between July 2024 and July 2029.

It estimates there could be 296,661 cases across the UK if current trends continue.

Some 243,045 are estimated for England, followed by 29,365 in Scotland, 15,161 in Wales and 9,090 in Northern Ireland.

Overall, some 2,846 cancer cases in the UK could be caused by exposure to second-hand smoke in people who have never smoked themselves, the analysis claims.

The charity is calling on MPs to act and back the Tobacco and Vapes Bill ahead of its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday.

The Scottish Government has backed the legislation, which will need the support of MSPs in Holyrood for it to fully apply in Scotland.

The Bill would make it illegal to sell tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009.

This would mean that children turning 15 this year will never legally be able to be sold cigarettes.

The legislation also includes powers to introduce a licensing scheme for tobacco and vapes, and extend smoke-free spaces.

Cancer Research said the Bill could have a “profound impact” on Scotland, where tobacco is still the leading cause of cancer.

The charity said the Bill represents a historic opportunity to help prevent cancers, alleviate pressures on already overstretched health services and pave the way for a smoke-free UK.

Dr Ian Walker, executive director of policy at Cancer Research, said: “Tobacco kills up to two-thirds of its users. The magnitude of damage caused by smoking cannot be ignored and these statistics expose the lives that are at stake.

“We know that smoking rates decline with government intervention. Raising the age of sale of tobacco products and funding cessation services will help to protect people from a lifetime of deadly and costly addiction.

“The Tobacco and Vapes Bill could be one of the most impactful public health interventions in my lifetime. People’s lives are now in the hands of politicians and I urge all MPs to vote for a future free from the harms of tobacco.”

The idea of increasing the age limit for tobacco was first proposed by the last Conservative government under Rishi Sunak and the policy has been continued under Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer.

Sheila Duffy, chief executive of the charity Action on Smoking and Health Scotland, said: “Cancer Research UK’s estimates about the number of lives being lost to smoking-related cancers demonstrates why MPs representing constituents across the country must support the Tobacco and Vapes Bill’s strong measures to continue driving down use of tobacco – the biggest preventable killer in Scotland.

“Westminster must guard against all attempts by the tobacco industry and its allies to delay or weaken the legislation and consequent regulations.

“Elected representatives owe it to current and future generations to work at pace to ensure robust measures are rapidly implemented to eradicate the damage being inflicted on people’s lives by profit-centred multi-national corporations, especially in our poorest communities.”

Jenni Minto, Scotland’s public health minister, said: “We welcome the re-introduction of the UK-wide Tobacco and Vapes Bill to UK Parliament which, once passed, will help us to achieve our ambitious target of a tobacco-free Scotland by 2034.

“Smoking causes huge harms to individuals, their families and loved ones, and has wider impacts on the NHS and society.

“It is a major contributor to health inequalities – which is why our shared goal is to eradicate tobacco use.”