No unintended consequences from guideline for sentencing young people – report

A review into a sentencing guideline which allowed a man convicted of rape to avoid prison due to his age has been carried out by the Scottish Sentencing Council and has found no impact on the pattern of offending.

A report on the “Sentencing young people” guideline during its first year in force noted non-custodial sentences for people aged under 24 had increased, but it said “there is no sign the guideline had had any unintended consequences”, or that it affected “the pattern of offending by young people”.

The guideline was approved by the High Court in November 2021 and has applied since January 2022.

It caused controversy when convicted rapist Sean Hogg was allowed to walk out of court with no custodial sentence.

Mr Hogg was 21 when he was convicted at the High Court in Glasgow and was given 270 hours of community service as he was 17 at the time of the alleged offence in 2018.

His sentence was later appealed by the Crown as “unduly lenient” but he was then acquitted at the Court of Session in October 2023.

Scottish Conservative justice spokesman Liam Kerr branded the guideline “soft-touch” and said it is “pandering” to young offenders.

The sentencing council has a statutory duty to review its guidelines after both one year and three years.

It analysed data for January 26 2022 to January 25 2023, the first year of the guideline’s operation, and the five years prior to that.

In addition to data on offenders aged under 24, the review included analysis of data on those aged over 25.

It found custodial sentences fell in both groups but especially among 21 to 24-year-olds. However it said “a causal link with the guideline cannot be established on statistics alone” and called for further research.

The report said: “It is not possible to determine the degree of any impact the ‘Sentencing young people’ guideline may have had on custody rates.

“While there was a slight increase in custody rates for the under 18 age group in 2022-23, the rates for offenders aged 18-20 and 21-24, and 25 and over, dropped in that year, although there was a more pronounced drop within the 21-24 age group compared to the others.

“The extent to which this can be attributed to the guideline cannot be determined on quantitative data alone.”

A spokesperson said: “It also highlights that other factors, such as criminal justice measures to respond to the impact of the pandemic, as well as a change in the law in July 2019 which extended the presumption against short sentences to 12 months or less, are difficult to separate from any potential changes that could be attributed to the guideline.”

Lady Dorrian, Lord Justice Clerk and chairwoman of the council, said: “The council is pleased to publish this research review, which is the first in its programme of routine reviews of sentencing guidelines.

“We hope that it will help to increase understanding of the sentencing of young people by setting out initial evidence of how the guideline has been operating in practice.

“However, it is only the first stage in our review process. Now that the guideline has been in effect for a sufficient period of time to allow more in-depth examination of its potential impacts, we will, in line with our methodology, begin a wider-ranging review of the evidence available.

“This will involve both qualitative and quantitative research, exploring the guideline’s operation between January 26 2023 and January 25 2024 and the same period in 2024 to 2025, in addition to its first year. The one-year review provides a solid evidence base for that.

“The council anticipated that the guideline would have the greatest effect on sentencing decisions for offenders aged 21 to 24, leading to a greater emphasis on rehabilitation and a possible change to sentencing practice as a result.

“While there are some indications of this, there is also evidence that courts were in fact already approaching the sentencing of those under 25 differently from those aged 25 and over during the five years before the introduction.

“In order to gain a more detailed understanding of how the guideline is being applied in practice, we need a larger dataset, as well as to carry out research with sentencers and others.”

Mr Kerr said: “The SNP’s soft-touch sentencing guidelines are letting hundreds of criminals off with a slap on the wrist, simply because they are under 25.

“Offenders over 21 are adults – and they must face the consequences for breaking the law. Instead, too many are avoiding jail altogether and left free to offend again.

“This systemic erosion of justice is an insult to victims, whose needs are an afterthought for SNP ministers.

“Instead of pandering to young people who break the law, the SNP should show some common sense and ditch these reckless guidelines.”