Scotland facing cancer ‘timebomb’ as number of cases reaches record high

Scotland is facing a “ticking timebomb of cancer cases”, the Tories warned, as new figures showed the number of cases of the disease has reached a record high while a key waiting time target has not been met for well over a decade.

Scottish Conservatives hit out at “atrocious” cancer waiting times figures, which showed three out of 10 with the disease wait longer than two months after being first referred to start treatment – with Cancer Research UK also insisting this is “unacceptable”.

Those figures were published at the same time as it was revealed the number of cases of cancer in Scotland has grown by 13% over the last decade to reach the highest ever total.

There were 37,202 new cancers diagnosed in 2023, new statistics from Public Health Scotland (PHS) revealed – with 18,769 men and 18,433 women diagnosed with the disease over the course of the year.

This was said to be “in line with a long-term trend of an increasing number of cancer diagnoses over time”, with PHS noting it was “the largest recorded number of new cancers diagnosed in a year in Scotland”.

New data on the rising number of cancer cases was published as separate statistics showed a key waiting times target for treating those with the disease has now been met since the end of 2012.

The Scottish Government’s target is for 95% of patients to begin treatment within 62 days of being referred with an urgent suspicion of cancer.

But the latest figures, for the period April to June, showed 69.9% of patients started getting treatment within this two month target time.

This was up from 68.9% in the previous quarter, but down from 73.2% in April to June 2024, and also down from 83.7% in the last three months of 2019 – just prior to the Covid pandemic.

Only one of Scotland’s 14 health boards – NHS Lanarkshire – met the 62-day standard in April to June 2025, with 95.4% of patients there starting treatment within the target time.

However, another waiting time target, for cancer patients to start their treatment within 31 days of a decision being made on how best to care for them, was met.

A total of 95.3% of patients started treatment within 31 days, compared with 94.1% in the previous quarter – with 11 out of 14 health boards across the country meeting this target.

The PHS report noted: “For NHS Scotland overall, the 62-day standard was not met in Q2 2025 and has not been met since Q4 2012.

“The 31-day standard was met in Q2 2025 (95.3%), for the second time in the last eight quarters.”

Scottish Conservative health spokesperson Dr Sandesh Gulhane blasted: “These atrocious statistics confirm Scotland is facing a ticking timebomb of cancer cases on the SNP’s watch.

“Everyone knows early treatment saves lives – yet in the last quarter only one health board hit the SNP’s own 62-day target.

“Three in 10 Scots are waiting too long to start treatment. This is terrifying for patients who have been diagnosed with cancer and their loved ones.

“Staff are working flat out, but lives are being put at risk because of the SNP’s failure to cut waiting times. They still don’t have a plan to tackle Scotland’s cancer crisis.”

Labour health spokesperson Jackie Baillie was also critical, saying: “Swift treatment can mean the difference between life and death for cancer patients, but it’s clear too many Scots are being failed in their hour of need.

“More than a decade has passed since the SNP last met its 62-day treatment target, with thousands of patients being let down in that time.

“Scotland is facing a cancer timebomb with the number of cases at a record high, but under the SNP treatment is still not up to standard.”

Meanwhile, Dr Sorcha Hume, public affairs manager for Cancer Research UK in Scotland, said: “It’s unacceptable that people are still waiting too long for a diagnosis and treatment, something which causes real distress.

“It’s essential we start to see progress on meeting these targets which are missed time and time again.

“Scotland urgently needs bold leadership, decisive action and enough dedicated funding to deliver on its cancer strategy.”

Health Secretary Neil Gray said it was “positive that the 31-day standard has been met”, as he stated: “We’re treating more patients with cancer on time within both the 31-day and 62-day standards, compared to pre-pandemic and 10 years ago.”

But he added: “Continued diagnostic pressure and an increase in referrals is affecting 62-day performance.

“We recognise that we must do more to ensure more patients are treated within the 62-day standard.

“I am determined to drive further improvements and have directed £14.23 million of the £110 million in additional planned care funding for 2025-26 to Cancer Waiting Times, with a focus on colorectal, urological and breast as our most challenged pathways.”

Meanwhile the PHS report said that “there continues to be a large unrealised potential to prevent many cancers ever occurring”.

Here it said that “smoking, obesity, sunburn and ultraviolet radiation from sunbeds, and alcohol consumption are among the avoidable risks for cancer in Scotland”.

But while the number of cancer cases has increased, PHS said that overall “there has been no significant change in rates, or risks, of developing cancer in either men or women in the last 10 years”.

Instead it stated: “Increases in the number of older people in Scotland is behind much of the overall increase in the number of cancers over time.”

Almost four out of five (77%) cancer diagnoses were in people aged 60 years and over in 2023, the data showed.

The four most most common cancers in Scotland – prostate, breast, lung, and bowel – together made up more than half (56%) of all cancer diagnoses in that year.

The report also revealed that for men the rate of prostate cancer increased by 33% over the decade – with the rate for malignant melanoma skin cancers up by 19% over this period.

There were however “significant falls” in the rates of lung cancer, which were down by 25% over the decade and bladder cancer, where rates were down 7%.

For women, rates of malignant melanoma in the skin were up by over a third (36%) over the 10 years, with breast cancer rates rising 11% and bowel cancer up by 8%.

But over the same period, lung cancer rates in women were down by 8% with non-Hodgkin lymphoma down 16%.