Child poverty target to be missed by ‘large margin’ without action, report warns

Scotland is on course to miss a child poverty reduction target by a “large margin”, a report has warned.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) said the target will be missed unless political parties make changes in the next Scottish Parliament.

Its report shows around one in four children remain in poverty, and levels of poverty are “largely the same” as they were at the start of the current parliamentary session in 2021.

However, it said there are some signs that the Scottish child payment is starting to have an impact.

The JRF is calling for all parties standing in next year’s election to increase social security spending and expand free nursery places for low-income households in a bid to come within range of hitting the target.

The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 set targets to cut child poverty to 18% by 2024/25 and to 10% by 2030/31.

The Poverty in Scotland 2025 report says: “The Scottish Government has not met the interim child poverty reduction targets and remains far from the 2030/31 final targets.”

It adds that unless there are changes, “the Scottish Parliament will miss its child poverty reduction target by a large margin”.

Other key findings in the report show poverty is deepening across Scotland, with nearly one in 10 people in very deep poverty – with an income below 40% of the median.

It also shows 73% of children in poverty live in a home with a working parent.

Housing costs are causing poverty, particularly for renters, the report says, with one in 10 people in rented accommodation being pulled into poverty for this reason.

Chris Birt, Joseph Rowntree Foundation associate director for Scotland, said: “This report shows the results of today’s failures on tackling poverty, but there is so much we can do to make things better, if our politicians have the courage to act boldly.

“With nearly a quarter of a million children still experiencing poverty, there is much to be done to ensure that every child in Scotland has the childhood they deserve.

“We should be aiming for a country where everyone has a decent affordable home, where work gives us enough to get by on, and where we all have enough to pay the bills.

“People are feeling ignored and overlooked by decisionmakers, and it is crucial that the next parliament focuses on the things that matter to people, like tackling child poverty.

“Our message to all political parties ahead of the Holyrood election is this: you might try to meet our poverty targets and fail, but it is unacceptable not to try at all.”

The report shows relative poverty, absolute poverty and persistent poverty would all need to close by more than 10 percentage points over the next Scottish Parliament for the target to be met.

The JRF report also analysed child poverty at a local authority level for the first time.

It found poverty rates have fallen in 27 out of 32 council areas in 2023/24 compared to 2019/20.

The JRF said this could be due to the positive impact of the Scottish child payment.

However, researchers noted a rise in poverty rates over the same period in many parts of the central belt.

The JRF is calling for each party standing at next year’s Holyrood election to commit to meeting the child poverty reduction target.

A UK Government spokesperson said: “We are working closely with and supporting the Scottish Government through the largest real-terms settlement in the history of devolution.

“The Government is determined to bring down child poverty. We’ve already uprated benefits, increased the national minimum wage and are supporting 700,000 of the poorest families by introducing a fair repayment rate on Universal Credit deductions.

“We will publish an ambitious child poverty strategy later this year to ensure we deliver fully-funded measures that tackle the structural and root causes of child poverty across the country.”

First Minister John Swinney said: “Tackling child poverty is this Government’s defining mission and our determination is backed up by a commitment to put more money in people’s pockets and deliver real savings to support families.

“There are fewer children in poverty in Scotland than the rest of the UK because we have made bold policy choices backed by an unwavering resolve.

“The Scottish child payment was benefitting around 322,000 children and their families as of the end of June. Our free school meals programme is providing nutritious meals to more than 230,000 primary school pupils. We have cut costs for commuters by scrapping peak rail fares. Some 2.3 million people travel free on buses. And we’re mitigating the two-child limit early next year.

“The UK Government, if it is serious about tackling poverty, must match our ambition and, at the very least, fully scrap the two-child limit so that a generation of children don’t have their opportunities limited by inaction.

“But scrapping the two-child limit should also be done alongside the removal of the benefit cap. It is unconscionable to me that the UK Government could fail to address this – it must scrap both punitive policies.

“If it does, and it matches the Scottish child payment and introduces an essentials guarantee, our modelling estimates that the UK Government could reduce relative child poverty in Scotland by 100,000 children next year.

“We have made a difference through bold, game-changing policies. The blueprint is there. It is time for the UK Government to act.”