Reform in second place on both Scottish Parliament ballots, poll suggests

An opinion poll has for the first time suggested Reform UK is in second place for both the constituency and list votes for the Scottish Parliament.

Analysis of the poll forecasts Nigel Farage’s party could win 22 MSPs, becoming the second-largest group in Holyrood.

The SNP would win 55 MSPs, according to the modelling, with Labour on 19, the Conservatives on 12, the Liberal Democrats on 11 and the Greens on 10.

The poll, reported in the Herald on Sunday, was carried out by Survation for the IPPR Scotland think tank.

In the constituency vote, it has the SNP leading on 34%, followed by Reform UK on 22% and Labour on 18%.

The Conservatives are on 10%, the Liberal Democrats on 8%, the Greens on 7% and Alba on 1%.

On the regional list vote, the SNP remain ahead on 29%, with Reform UK on 20%, Labour on 17%, the Tories on 12%, the Lib Dems and Greens both on 10%, and Alba on 2%.

A total of 2,043 adults were polled between September 22 and October 14.

Analysis of the poll to estimate the number of MSPs each party would win was carried out by Mark Diffley.

He told the Herald: “This is the first poll in Scotland to show Reform UK in second place on both the constituency and regional list votes.

“It consolidates the trend we have seen over the past year, with the party averaging around 20% support and now edging ahead at 22%.

“They seem to be pushing Labour further back into third place, which is a clear problem for Labour.”

Mr Farage was quoted in the newspaper as saying Reform is “pleased with our progress in Scotland” ahead of the election in May.

The poll also found there is deep scepticism among the public around politicians’ abilities to improve key priorities like the NHS and the cost of living.

Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson posted about the poll on X, saying: “SNP retains 12 point lead ahead of Holyrood election while Labour falls to third place behind Reform. Vote SNP Stop Farage.”

SNP depute leader Keith Brown added: “Next year’s election is increasingly becoming a choice of two futures – an SNP government and independence, or a future under a Westminster system dominated by Farage that is heading down a very dark path.

“The SNP Government is entirely focused on the issues that matter most to people in Scotland – with NHS waiting lists going down, GP numbers going up, and supporting people with the cost of living by removing peak fares on our railways for good.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said: “The next election is a direct choice between a third decade of this tired and out-of-touch SNP Government and a new direction with a Scottish Labour government.

“Under the SNP, Scotland’s public services are at breaking point – from our NHS to our schools to our justice system.

“Reform are Tories in new rosettes – they have no answers to the challenges Scotland faces.”