Reform jumps to second place as third of Scots feel negative about future – poll

Reform UK has leapfrogged Scottish Labour into second place ahead of next year’s election as one third of Scots feel negatively about the country’s future, a new poll suggests.

A study conducted by Survation for the IPPR Scotland think tank ahead of its conference on Wednesday spoke to 2,043 people between September 22 and October 14, finding the SNP maintains its lead in Scotland.

According to the poll, John Swinney’s party retains 34% support in the constituency vote and 29% on the list.

Nigel Farage-led Reform has moved to 22% and 20% respectively, ahead of Labour on 18% and 17%.

The Scottish Conservatives are fourth in the poll, with 10% and 12% support, slightly ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 8% and 10%.

Support for the Scottish Greens is put at 7% and 10%.

The bulk of Reform support, according to the poll, has come from Labour, with 34% saying they will vote the party having backed Sir Keir Starmer last year.

The wide-ranging survey also sought to gauge the attitudes of Scots ahead of the election, finding 32% view Scotland’s future negatively, compared with 40% who have a favourable outlook.

Around one third also said they believe inequality will widen in the term of the next Scottish Parliament, while 42% said they expect it to stay the same, and 14% feel the gap between the richest and poorest will reduce.

Since taking office last year, First Minister John Swinney has made eradicating child poverty his main goal.

While the rate is coming down – despite the Government missing its statutory targets for last year – 61% of people said they are not confident the issue will be solved in the next parliament, compared to 34% who feel it would.

The poll also found young people are least likely to vote, despite being substantially more positive about the future of Scotland.

While 38% of young people said nothing will make them vote, 30% said they could be swayed by better engagement from parties and more access to information.

The findings come hours before Mr Swinney and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar address the IPPR conference.

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “This is yet another poll showing the SNP well in the lead, as John Swinney and the SNP Government deliver on people’s priorities and deliver hope for a better future with independence.

“But it is a disaster for Labour who have now fallen behind Nigel Farage into third place – Keir Starmer’s incompetent Labour Government is becoming more unpopular by the day.

“Next year’s election is increasingly becoming a choice of two futures – an SNP Government and independence, or a future under a Westminster system dominated by Farage that is heading down a very dark path.”

While Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “After nearly two decades of managed decline by the SNP it is no wonder people feel despair – but this is not as good as it gets.

“Only Scottish Labour can put an end to SNP mismanagement and waste and fix our overstretched public services.

“The SNP is tired and out of ideas – but Scottish Labour is ambitious for Scotland’s future.”