Police numbers will ‘shrink’ without increased funding, chief constable warns

Scotland’s chief constable has warned Police Scotland will have to “shrink” the number of officers it has unless the force receives increased funding totalling almost £105 million in Holyrood’s budget.

Telling MSPs policing in Scotland is “at a crossroads”, Jo Farrell said if the force does not receive at least £104.9 million from ministers for 2026-27, “our workforce will shrink further”.

Lynn Brown, the head of finance at Police Scotland, also told Holyrood’s Criminal Justice Committee: “If we don’t get the funding it essentially leaves a funding gap, we would need to find the savings if that settlement was less.”

Ms Farrell also made clear the increased, and increasingly complex, workload Police Scotland is having to deal with.

The force is tackling a growing number of cases concerning the online abuse of children, with the chief constable saying cases had doubled in just 12 months.

She said: “Last year we received just in excess of 700 notifications in relation to suspicions, information, intelligence around online harm relating to children.

“In one year that has increased to nearly 1,500.”

The number of protests officers have to police has also “increased rapidly”, she said, from about 1,000 a year to more than 2,000 over the last three years – with this having an impact “predominantly at the weekend”.

Noting the “threat picture is changing” in Scotland, the chief constable said there is “increased activity around a terrorist threat”, and the force is monitoring 90 serious and organised crime groups – totalling 1,000 people, including children.

Ms Farrell stressed “Scotland is safe, and will remain so”, but she added: “Poverty, geopolitics, cyber crime and civil unrest is driving a high level of demand, and the challenge for policing is evolving rapidly.”

The latest figures show Police Scotland had 16,441 full-time equivalent officers as of September 30 this year, with a Government report saying while officer numbers had “increased slightly” these were still at lower levels than the first three months of this year.

Ms Farrell went on to warn a so-called “flat-cash” budget settlement – where the cash allocated to the police remains at the same level as the current year – would see officer numbers fall.

She told the committee such a settlement would see Police Scotland “immediately stop recruitment, to reduce workforce numbers through retirement and resignation”.

However, she added: “This would not achieve the savings needed.

“This attrition would further reduce officer numbers to fewer than 15,500 by March 2027, with a significant reduction in visible policing, prevention work, delays in responding to calls from the public, and a severe impact to our ability to respond to major events.”

MSPs were told that under these circumstances, “difficult decisions will be required”.

Ms Farrell said in order to “meet our unavoidable costs”, the force requires £104.9 million additional funding in next year’s budget allocated by the Scottish Government.

On top of that, Police Scotland is seeking a further £33 million “in order to meet the threat, harm and risk we are facing and that we can see before us”.

She said the force is the only public sector organisation – with the possible exception of the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service – that has seen a “reduction in resources” since being set up.

Police Scotland papers submitted to the committee said cumulative savings of more than £2.5 billion had been delivered since the national force was set up in 2013.

The chief constable stressed: “We are still operating and we are still keeping the people of Scotland safe, and meeting all those additional demands, but we are at a crossroads.

“My ask is that there is some reinvestment of some of the money that was saved so we can meet those threats.”

Afterwards, Scottish Conservative justice spokesperson Liam Kerr MSP said: “This stark warning from Police Scotland’s top boss cannot be ignored by SNP ministers.

“The sustained budget cuts from the nationalists mean officer numbers are already at woefully low levels and the force can ill afford to lose any more.

“A lack of police presence in our communities puts public safety at risk and allows criminals to go unpunished.

“The SNP cannot keep turning a blind eye to the major challenges facing Police Scotland and ensure that frontline policing efforts are prioritised in any budget agreement.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat justice spokesperson Liam McArthur said: “The SNP’s failure to support Scottish policing for the past 18 years is coming home to roost.

“On the SNP’s watch, police officer numbers have plummeted and some crimes are no longer being investigated. Staff are demoralised and policing bodies have repeatedly warned of a public safety crisis.

“Officers, staff and communities all deserve better.”