Less than half of Scots who voted Labour in 2024 would do so again, poll finds

Less than half of Scots who backed Labour in last year’s general election would vote for them again, a poll has found.

Research by YouGov found that 48% of those who voted for Sir Keir Starmer’s party last July would be willing to vote Labour again in a future election – with more than a third (35%) saying they are considering voting for the Liberal Democrats, while more than a quarter (28%) could vote SNP.

Meanwhile, 87% of those who voted for John Swinney’s SNP in the 2024 Westminster election said they would consider backing them again  – although 45% are also open to voting Green.

The polling, released in the run up to May’s Holyrood election, found overall almost two fifths (37%) of Scots would consider voting SNP.

More than a quarter (27%) said they would consider voting for the Greens, with 26% considering backing the Liberal Democrats.

However, less than a quarter (23%) of the 1,017 people questioned said they would consider voting Labour – putting the party slightly ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, whom 21% are thinking about voting for.

The pollsters found that while 56% of people north of the border disapprove of the Scottish Government, a greater number (75%) disapprove of the the UK Government.

Almost a third (32%) of those surveyed had a favourable opinion of Scottish First Minister Mr Swinney – though 51% had an unfavourable opinion of him, giving him an overall net favourability rating of -19.

In comparison, less than a fifth (19%) have a favourable opinion of the Prime Minister – with 72% unfavourable towards the Labour leader, giving him a net rating of -53.

And while 17% have favourable view of the Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, 51% are unfavourable towards him, putting his overall rating at -34.

The poll also found Scots are near-evenly split  on the issue of independence – with 51% backing a Yes vote if there were to be a second referendum, while 49% would vote No, when those who do not know how they would vote are removed.

YouGov, which carried out the research between October 31 and November 5, said: “With opinion so close, winning over the 13% of Scots who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum will be crucial for either side.

“These Scots are disproportionately young, with 26% of 16 to 24-year-olds being unsure how they would vote, compared to just 11% of 50 to 64-year-olds and 5% of over-65s.”