Committee urges Government to lay out plans to meet benefits spending forecast

A Holyrood committee has urged the Scottish Government to lay out how it plans to meet a forecast 30% increase in benefits spending by the end of the decade.

The Social Justice and Social Security Committee published its pre-budget scrutiny report on Tuesday, raising concerns about the sustainability of the benefits spend.

According to the Scottish Fiscal Commission, the spend on social security north of the border could rise from £6.77 billion this financial year, to £8.83 billion by 2029-30.

By the end of the decade, the Government has said it will have to deal with a near-£5 billion black hole in its budget.

The committee said there was “clearly uncertainty” in whether the Government’s fiscal plans will be enough to balance the budget.

“The Committee would therefore like more information on choices the Scottish Government intends to make across the resource budget as a whole in order to fund its programme of devolved social security,” the report said.

The Committee also looked at the impacts of the two-child benefit cap being cut by the UK Government at the Budget later this month.

The Scottish Government announced last year it would mitigate the cap by early next year, but an outright scrapping or cutting of the devolved policy would free up cash for Scotland.

If cut entirely, £11 million will be saved this year, rising to £155 million next year, with First Minister John Swinney pledging to spend the cash on other anti-poverty measures.

With the mitigation due to come into place in March, the committee pushed to find out what new measures could be introduced if the cap was scrapped.

Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said: “Our efforts are the result of a conscious decision to invest in the people of Scotland and we balance our budget every year despite over a decade of austerity and punitive welfare cuts from successive UK governments. And our medium-term financial strategy and fiscal sustainability delivery plan set out the actions we’re taking to improve the sustainability of the public finances.

“It is important to note that the proportion of the resource budget which the Scottish Government has chosen to invest in enhancing social security in Scotland compared to England and Wales is projected to increase by less than 1% by 2029-30 compared to this current financial year.

“I continue to call on the UK Government to reverse its plan to cut the health element of universal credit, which will cost around 77,000 households in Scotland £3,000 a year by 2029-30. We will not cut adult disability payment and I urge the UK Government to follow our lead to ensure disabled people have the support they need.”