Flu cases up 24% but experts say vaccine is working to prevent serious illness

Flu cases in Scotland have increased by a quarter in a week, but health experts said the statistics suggest the vaccine is working to prevent severe illness.

Public Health Scotland (PHS) data published on Thursday shows laboratory-confirmed influenza cases between December 1 and 7 rose from 1,875 to 2,331 – a 24% increase.

Hospital admissions due to influenza increased 15% from 860 to 986 over the week.

The highest case rates were observed in younger age groups, especially school-age children.

PHS said cases have reached medium activity levels, and this has come two weeks earlier than in previous flu seasons.

Its viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report said the “high activity threshold has now been reached, earlier than previous seasons”.

But it said that despite the latest rise in flu cases, they have “increased at slower rates than the previous week and there is, as yet, no evidence of more severe disease”, as measured by admissions to hospital ICU or high dependency units.

It said the dominant strain of the virus is Influenza A(H3N2), and despite concerns about the impact of a new mutated form of the virus, “the vaccine is providing good protection against influenza A hospitalisations in Scotland”.

It said there is a 78% reduced risk of hospitalisation among children aged two to 17 if they are vaccinated, and 37% in those 65 and over.

The PHS report also said GP consultations for influenza-like illness remain at medium level overall, with the primary demographic being children aged five to 14.

Dr Kim Marsh, Viral Respiratory Pathogens lead at the organisation, said: “PHS’s new vaccine effectiveness results reinforce our message that the flu vaccine offers the best protection against severe disease for those who are eligible, even with the new strain now circulating widely.

“Vaccination remains the best way to help protect yourself against serious illness from flu and is also important in reducing the spread of flu in the community, helping to keep everyone from missing out on socialising with friends and family over the festive season.

“NHS Boards in Scotland are working hard to deliver the winter vaccination programme and look forward to welcoming you for your appointment. Drop-in clinics are also available in most areas.”