Flu cases up 24% but experts say vaccine is working to prevent serious illness

Flu cases in Scotland have increased by a quarter in a week, but health experts said the statistics suggest the vaccine is working to prevent severe illness.

Public Health Scotland (PHS) data published on Thursday shows laboratory-confirmed influenza cases between December 1 and 7 rose from 1,875 to 2,331 – a 24% increase.

Hospital admissions due to influenza increased 15% from 860 to 986 over the week.

The highest case rates were observed in younger age groups, especially school-age children.

The Scottish Government confirmed a resilience meeting took place on Thursday afternoon to discuss the rising number of cases and the subsequent pressure on health services.

Chaired by Justice Secretary Angela Constance, the meeting was attended by Health Secretary Neil Gray, Chief Medical Officer Professor Sir Gregor Smith and PHS head of health protection Jim McMenamin.

An average of 662 flu patients were in hospital in Scotland each day last week, up from 446 the previous week.

At this point last year the figure stood at 224 patients.

PHS said cases have reached medium activity levels, and this has come two weeks earlier than in previous flu seasons.

Its viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report said the “high activity threshold has now been reached, earlier than previous seasons”.

But it said that despite the latest rise in flu cases, they have “increased at slower rates than the previous week and there is, as yet, no evidence of more severe disease”, as measured by admissions to hospital ICU or high dependency units.

It said the dominant strain of the virus is Influenza A(H3N2), and despite concerns about the impact of a new mutated form of the virus, “the vaccine is providing good protection against influenza A hospitalisations in Scotland”.

It said there is a 78% reduced risk of hospitalisation among children aged two to 17 if they are vaccinated, and 37% in those 65 and over.

The PHS report also said GP consultations for influenza-like illness remain at medium level overall, with the primary demographic being children aged five to 14.

Dr Kim Marsh, viral respiratory pathogens lead at the organisation, said: “PHS’s new vaccine effectiveness results reinforce our message that the flu vaccine offers the best protection against severe disease for those who are eligible, even with the new strain now circulating widely.

“Vaccination remains the best way to help protect yourself against serious illness from flu and is also important in reducing the spread of flu in the community, helping to keep everyone from missing out on socialising with friends and family over the festive season.

“NHS boards in Scotland are working hard to deliver the winter vaccination programme and look forward to welcoming you for your appointment. Drop-in clinics are also available in most areas.”

In the Scottish Parliament on Thursday, Scottish Labour Glasgow MSP Paul Sweeney asked the Health Secretary what additional measures the Scottish Government is taking to boost vaccination rates.

He said: “Staff in Glasgow hospitals say that beds are filling up at an alarming rate due to what has been termed today as a ‘super flu’.

“In other health boards, hospital visitor restrictions are now in place. Scotland appears to be facing a worse-case scenario this winter. Yet this situation could have been managed more effectively if the suggestions we made to ministers months ago had been heeded.

“Flu vaccination rates are unacceptably low and it’s shocking that there are more than 300,000 fewer adults vaccinated compared with two years ago. It’s completely unacceptable.

“What additional measures will the Government introduce to rebuild Scotland’s vaccination rate before the healthcare system is completely overwhelmed?”

Neil Gray responded by saying Mr Sweeney was comparing “apples with oranges” on flu jab vaccination rates given the change in eligibility advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation last year compared to this year.

He said: “If you compare like with like, particularly amongst adults, we are substantially ahead on vaccinations this year compared to last year. Our flu vaccination programme started in September and we have vaccinated over one-and-a-half million people.

“Of course there is more to do and it’s never too late to pick up a vaccine, which is why my encouragement, the Government’s encouragement, to everybody is if you’re eligible for a vaccine, whether you’re a member of the public or member of staff in health and social care, make sure you take it up.”