First poll of 2026 shows Reform and Labour fighting for second at Holyrood

Labour and Reform are fighting for second place in May’s Holyrood election, with the first poll of 2026 showing the SNP remains on track for a fifth consecutive victory.

Research by Survation, carried out for True North Advisers, put John Swinney’s party ahead in both sections of the Holyrood ballot.

Just over a third (34%) of voters said the SNP will get their vote on the constituency section, with 28% saying they will also back the party on the regional ballot.

Reform UK, which currently only has one MSP, will be supported by 19% of voters on the constituency ballot and 18% on the regional vote, according to the research.

Support for Scottish Labour is also at 18% on the regional vote, with Anas Sarwar’s party having the backing of 16% of voters in the constituency ballot.

That level of support could see Labour and Reform winning 18 MSPs at Holyrood, while the SNP could have 61 – making it the largest party once again but falling short of the majority Mr Swinney wants to win to try to force a second independence referendum.

The Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, could go being the second largest party at Holyrood to the fourth, with the research projecting they will win 12 seats and support levels of 13% on the regional ballot.

Liberal Democrats are forecast to return 11 MSPs, with the poll suggesting the Greens could increase their number to nine.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said: “It is clear that Reform cannot remove the SNP from office and are only campaigning to be in opposition.

“Scottish Labour is the only party that is standing to boot the SNP out of office after 19 years of failure.

“This election is not about Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage – it is about Anas Sarwar and John Swinney.

“It is about who should be the next first minister of Scotland. Everything else is just noise.

“Scottish Labour will offer people the opportunity to take a new direction and turn the page on almost two decades of SNP failure.”

SNP MSP George Adam said: “The poll shows that people in Scotland are putting faith in the SNP as the only party which offers trusted leadership and puts their priorities first, while support for Westminster parties flounders.

“It’s no surprise that voters have lost faith in a Labour Party which has consistently let Scotland down with nothing but broken promises since coming to power. Even Labour’s own MPs appear to have lost faith in their own Prime Minister.

“In contrast, under John Swinney’s leadership, the SNP has this week delivered a Budget which delivers on the people of Scotland’s priorities with record investment in our NHS and the expansion of the best cost-of-living support in the UK.

“Ahead of the election in May, the SNP will make the case that Scotland’s energy should be in Scotland’s hands so that we can make choices to lower bills and benefit communities.

“Scotland deserves a fresh start with independence to escape Westminster parties which treat us as nothing more than an afterthought. That is the positive case the SNP will be taking to Scottish voters ahead of May.”