Pollster rejects Nigel Farage’s claim Holyrood election will be ‘two-horse race’

Claims from Nigel Farage that May’s Holyrood election will be a “two-horse race” between Reform and the SNP have been dismissed by a leading pollster.

Instead, Mark Diffley said current levels of support indicate it could be “an absolute toss-up” between Reform and Labour as to who comes in second place and forms the main opposition in the Scottish Parliament.

His comments came less than 24 hours after Mr Farage visited Scotland, announcing former Tory UK government minister Malcom Offord – who defected to Reform last month – as the party’s leader north of the border.

Speaking at a press conference in Fife, Mr Farage claimed May’s election will be a “two-horse race” between his party and the SNP.

He added: “I think we could even surprise ourselves with just how many votes we manage to garner in this election.”

Mr Diffley, founder and director of the Diffley Partnership polling company, said there is a “pattern of polling” in Scotland which shows Reform in second place – noting five out of the last six polls had put the party behind John Swinney’s SNP when it comes to voting intentions.

“I think we can call that a pattern of polling now,” the expert told BBC Radio Scotland’s Breakfast programme, adding Mr Offord “takes over the leadership of the party at a time when they are actually quite strong in Scotland and their support is growing”.

While he noted support for Reform in Scotland is “nothing like what it is in England, UK-wide”, he added: “There is now a pattern developing of polling in Scotland where Reform is in second place in terms of voting intention.”

However he said the polls “generally” show support for Reform on similar levels to that for Labour in Scotland, with only “a point or two” between the parties.

When these numbers are used to attempt to forecast how many MSPs each party will win, Mr Diffley said that “actually there is nothing between Reform and Labour”.

He added: “If the election was held now, and the numbers that are currently in the polls played out, then it would be an absolute toss-up between Reform and Labour as to who had more MSPs in the Parliament.

“I don’t accept it’s a two-horse race between Reform and the SNP.”

Mr Diffley went on to suggest one reason for Reform’s rising popularity is that it has not been in power – either in Holyrood, where it currently has one MSP, or at Westminster.

He said: “One of the main reasons I think for Reform doing quite well in Scotland at the moment is for some voters they are the only party that hasn’t had a shot at government, whether that’s the SNP in Scotland or Labour and the Tories at UK level.

“Many voters are thinking ‘we’ve tried this and we’ve tried that, and Reform are the only ones that haven’t had a go yet, so why don’t we give them a go’.”

However he added there is a “lot of fluidity in the electorate”, saying voters are perhaps waiting to see more detail of Reform’s policies on issues such as the NHS and education before deciding whether to back the party.

He said of Reform: “They’re not going to win the election in Holyrood, they may be second.”

While polling continues to show the SNP in the lead, Mr Diffley said it appears the First Minister’s party will fall short of winning the overall majority he wants to try to force a second independence referendum.

He said: “What looks to be the case at the moment is the SNP will be short of an overall majority, but they will have maybe 60 seats, about five short of an overall majority.

“They will be able to either govern as a minority party, as they are doing at the moment, or find support from the Greens or other parties.”