SNP could fall one seat short of a majority, poll suggests

The SNP could fall one seat short of a majority in the Holyrood election, a poll has suggested.

Polling firm More in Common spoke to 1,035 people between January 30 and February 10, finding 33% support for the SNP in constituencies and 31% on the regional list – a drop of two points and an increase of six points respectively.

Based on that tally, First Minister John Swinney’s party would win 64 seats on May 7, one short of the overall majority he is seeking to pressure the UK Government into holding another referendum on Scottish independence.

Labour’s fortunes increased in the constituency vote, rising by a point to 19%, but Anas Sarwar’s party shed three points on the regional list, dropping to 16%.

The period covered by the poll includes Mr Sarwar’s calls for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to quit, though it is not clear what impact the move had.

Reform UK continued to be a contender for second place, with 18% backing in constituencies and 16% on the regional list – a drop of one point and four points.

The Tories and Liberal Democrats continued their battle for fourth place, with both parties showing 11% support in constituencies and 12% on the regional list, while the Greens showed 6% locally and 9% regionally.

The projections suggest Reform would be second with 17 seats, followed by Labour on 16.

The Tories would drop substantially to 12 MSPs, with 11 for the Lib Dems and nine for the Scottish Greens.

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said the poll showed Scottish voters “putting their faith in John Swinney’s strong leadership”.

“As the Westminster parties tear themselves apart over scandals, John Swinney’s relentless focus has been on Scotland’s NHS, the cost-of-living crisis and offering people hope through a fresh start with independence,” he said.

“In stark contrast to the Labour Party, the last week saw the SNP delivering on the priorities of Scotland, from opening our first GP walk-in centre to freezing rail fares – that’s the difference John Swinney’s focused leadership brings.

“This poll reflects a month that has left Scottish voters in no doubt that while the others act in their own self-interests, the SNP will always be on Scotland’s side – a fresh start with independence is on the ballot paper in May and only a vote for the SNP can secure that future.”

A spokesperson for Reform UK said that, despite a boost on the regional list, the SNP “has run out of steam and ideas”.

“After two decades of managed decline the people are ready for Reform,” the statement said.

“The SNP has made everything worse, from the public services to town centres. The tax burden is weighing heavily on Scottish people and we will change that.

“They are fed up and this poll only further confirms what Reform has said all along: this is a two-horse race. We are going head-to-head with SNP.”