‘Less certainty’ on future but first carbon budget progressing well – report

The Scottish Government is scoring highly in progress to reduce emissions for its first carbon budget, however there is “less certainty” on future goals, the Climate Change Committee chairman has said.

The committee’s latest assessment of the Government’s progress in reducing emissions found there are “credible plans” and “plans with only some risks” in place for 91% of the cuts needed to achieve the first carbon budget for 2026-30.

The report’s findings show greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland fell 2.6% between 2021 and 2023 and are now less than half the levels seen in 1990.

However, looking long-term, progress for the second and third carbon budgets between 2031 and 2040 shows the proportion of required emissions reductions covered by credible plans, or carrying only some risk, reduces over time to 64% for the second and 58% for the third carbon budgets.

Committee chairman Nigel Topping said: “As you see our level of confidence for delivery of the first carbon budget is quite high, that 91% is really positive. As you’d expect, there’s less certainty further out.”

The report shows promising figures such as a 38% increase in electric vehicles on the road in the year to September 2025 and, driven by an increase in installations under the Home Energy Scotland and Warmer Homes Scotland schemes, there was an 18% increase in heat pump installations between 2023 and 2024.

However, the committee said it is “disappointing” there are still no alternative measures to the initial proposals for regulations to upgrade properties at the point of sale as it has been two years since the Scottish Government initially consulted on the Heat in Buildings Bill.

Mr Topping said the committee is looking for “more detail on Heat in Buildings” which he said “seems to have been a stuttering process for a while now but it’s really important”.

He said when the Bill was discussed three years ago, it held “great promise” to be a template to adapt elsewhere in the UK.

Mr Topping added: “We thought the frame that the approach that was being discussed here held that great promise to be something that might be used as a template to learn from and adapt elsewhere in the UK.

“So the fact that, again, this is for politicians to solve, but we’ve noticed that it sort of seems to have been a few false starts.

“Again it doesn’t make so much difference in the next four years, because we’re starting from a low base, but if we don’t pick up momentum now then it starts to make future budget targets much harder to achieve.”

The report is calling for the upcoming Heat in Buildings Strategy and Delivery Plan to be published as soon as possible this year.

Mr Topping also highlighted the Scottish Government’s long-term policies for decarbonising buildings and negative emissions technologies are lacking.

He said: “There’s a little alarm bell that the Scottish Government is proposing going slower than we suggested on both buildings and land and faster on negative emissions technologies, which is something basically Westminster control.

“So that’s both out-with the Scottish Government’s powers and relying on someone else to do something.”

Climate Action Secretary Gillian Martin said: “I welcome this report from the independent Climate Change Committee – which highlights key progress being made in Scotland.

“The draft plan includes over 150 actions key to achieving Scotland’s net zero goal while supporting people to make and adjust to the changes required.

“It also describes how we will seize and fairly distribute the opportunities from the transition to net zero – from new jobs, inclusive growth and better infrastructure to improved public services and healthier people – thanks to cleaner air, warmer homes and wealthier communities.

“The Climate Change Committee’s advice accompanies the extensive engagement and consultation the Government has undertaken on the draft plan.

“We will use this feedback to inform the forthcoming final Climate Change Plan – which will help inform future decision-making and ensure that we reach net zero in a way that is fair, ambitious and capable of rising to the emergency before us.”