Prison population could break record by July, projections suggest

Scotland’s prison population is “highly likely” to increase further by the summer and could smash the record high reached last year, projections have suggested.

Statistics released by the Scottish Government on Tuesday show predictions for the number of prisoners to be between 8,200 and 8,800 in July.

As of February 27, the population sat at 8,310, down from the peak of 8,441 in November.

The 26-page document also stated that the population would be between 180 and 200 prisoners larger without the Scottish Government’s emergency early release (EER) scheme.

The sentenced population was “almost certain” to increase, the predictions said, with the possibility of rising as high as 6,850 by July, compared to 6,122 last week.

The remand population – of those who have not been convicted of a crime – is harder to predict, according to the document, with the range predicted to be between 1,450 and 2,500, compared to 1,873 in the most recent figures.

“The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in July 2026 is between 8,200 and 8,800,” the report said.

“The modelling indicates it is highly likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of February 2026 and the end of July 2026.

“It is important to note that the population on February 1 2026 is estimated to have been approximately 180–200 lower than it would have been had EER not been implemented.

“As the impact of EER is temporary, it is unsurprising that the projections show a high likelihood of increases over the projection horizon.”

As well as the early release scheme, the Government is seeking to further reduce the automatic release point for certain short-term prisoners from 40% to 30% in a bid to reduce the prison population.

Commenting on the figures, Justice Secretary Angela Constance said: “Scotland is not alone in facing challenges from a rising and increasingly complex prison population.

“There is no single reason for this change and no single solution, and we are taking a number of actions to tackle this, including maximising the estate with additional capital funding put in place, increasing investment in community justice, and making greater use of home detention curfew.

“We are continuing to work with the SPS and partners on further measures to manage the prison population sustainably.”