SNP one seat short of majority, poll suggests

The SNP could fall just one seat short of a majority in May’s election, a new poll has suggested.

A survey done by Survation for the Diffley Partnership spoke to 1,017 people between February 20 and 25, finding 37% support for the SNP in constituencies and 33% on the list.

If that result was replicated, the party would return to power with 64 seats – the same result as in 2021 and one short of the majority sought by First Minister John Swinney, which he has said would secure another referendum on independence.

Reform UK would follow the SNP in second place, with 17% in both votes, claiming 19 seats, while Labour received 18% in the constituency and 17% on the list, but would only return 17 MSPs.

The Tories would follow in fourth with 13 seats – down substantially from the 31 claimed five years ago – with the Greens claiming nine seats and seven for the Lib Dems.

The poll also asked respondents for their approval ratings for each government, with the UK Government securing the support of just a quarter, with 65% disapproving, compared to 40% approval and 47% disapproval for the Scottish Government.

John Swinney was found to be the most popular politician among the respondents, with a net favourability rating of minus 1%, compared to the Prime Minister’s minus 41%.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s approval sat at minus 20%, with a substantial 27% of respondents undecided about the Glasgow MSP.

Reform UK leader in Scotland Malcolm Offord had a minus 12% net approval rating, but 61% of respondents were undecided about the former Tory peer.

Mark Diffley, a director at the Diffley Partnership, said: “Our new poll reinforces that the SNP continues to lead its rivals, but it also highlights an electorate weighing up competing priorities and mixed views on government performance.

“What stands out is that voters see the Scottish Government’s record as the key factor shaping their vote for Holyrood.

“As parties enter the crucial pre‑election period, it is clear that perceived competence at Holyrood will be central to how voters make up their minds.”