Scotland set to miss 2030 child poverty targets, IFS report says

Scotland is set to miss its 2030 child poverty targets “by a considerable margin”, according to a new report.

Research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that while Scotland’s child poverty rate is lower than in the rest of the UK, the proposed 2030 targets are set to be missed.

Scotland’s relative child poverty rate over the period 2022–23 to 2024–25 was 21%, compared with 28% in the UK as a whole and 38% in Greater London, the study said.

The Scottish child payment benefit is projected by the Scottish Government to reduce child poverty by around 50,000 children in 2026–27, compared with a scenario in which it did not exist.

Ministers have also estimated that devolved policy will have reduced child poverty by around 100,000 children in 2026–27, rising to 110,000 in 2030–31.

The fourth IFS Scottish election briefing – funded by the Nuffield Foundation and Robertson Trust – claimed that even with the introduction of such policies, the Scottish Government’s latest projections will still put the relative child poverty rate at 18% in 2030–31.

This would mean that Scotland is on course to miss its target of reducing relative child poverty to below 10% by 2030–31 by a considerable margin, the report said.

Tom Wernham, senior research economist at the IFS and co-author of the report, said: “Scotland’s devolved benefit system is reducing income inequality and child poverty. Further increases in devolved benefits are the most direct way to continue to reduce child poverty.

“But the scale of benefit increases needed to achieve the very stretching 10% child relative poverty target would cost billions of pounds per year and increase disincentives to work.

“Increases to employment and the wages of lower earners could, in principle, reduce poverty and boost Scottish Government revenues at the same time, but to deliver such increases at scale in practice would be very challenging.

“If the next Scottish Government also prioritises the living standards and life chances of children from lower-income families, a mix of benefit, labour market and public service policies will likely be needed. In the context of a constrained budget, it will also need to be clear eyed about what its key priorities are.

“While increasing benefits would have the most direct effects on income poverty, targeted service provision might be more cost-effective at improving longer-term educational, economic and social outcomes, if this provision is designed effectively.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat economy spokesman Jamie Greene MSP said: “Despite the grand rhetoric from the SNP, they have left thousands of children in poverty.

“For the past 19 years, the SNP have failed to use the powers they have had at their disposal to move the dial.

“Just like Nicola Sturgeon broke her promise to close the attainment gap, John Swinney has broken his promise to reduce child poverty. They simply cannot be trusted.

“Scottish Liberal Democrats are focused on tackling the root causes of child poverty, and everyone in Scotland has the chance to vote for these plans by backing us on your peach, regional ballot paper in May.”

The report analysed the patterns and trends in employment, earnings, household incomes and poverty in Scotland while also assessing the Scottish Government’s child poverty strategy.

Shirley-Anne Somerville, SNP candidate for Dunfermline, said: “Scotland has the lowest levels of child poverty on these islands – that’s thanks to SNP action in government and that’s exactly what you get from John Swinney’s strong leadership.

“John Swinney has made eradicating child poverty his number one mission and we are making good progress, despite complete failure from the Labour Party to get a grip of the cost-of-living crisis.

“Our game-changing Scottish child payment is unavailable anywhere else in the UK and our plans for year-round childcare for every child from nine months until the end of primary school will be transformative.

“The reality is, though, our mission on child poverty is undermined by Westminster governments that have punished Scottish families time and again – only through a fresh start with independence can we break free of broken, Brexit Britain and build a fairer, wealthier, Scotland.”