Warning to SNP as poll shows fall in support for Reform UK

A fall in support for Reform UK at the Holyrood elections could also hit the SNP, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has warned.

He said the SNP is “clearly still in pole position” in the run-up to the May 7 ballot, but a new poll, showing a fall in support for Nigel Farage’s party in Scotland, could also impact John Swinney’s party.

While several opinion polls have suggested Reform UK could be in second place at Holyrood after next month’s election, a new survey showed Scottish Labour as the second largest party.

A Norstat survey for the Sunday Times showed support for Reform UK – led in Scotland by Lord Malcolm Offord – had fallen to 15% in the constituency vote and the regional list section of Holyrood’s ballot.

The poll said support for the SNP was at 34% on the constituency ballot and 30% on the regional list, ahead of Labour, with Anas Sarwar’s party on 19% and 17% respectively.

Sir John, a politics professor at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, said such a result, if repeated in the elections, could leave the SNP with 57 seats at Holyrood – eight short of the 65 needed for the majority Mr Swinney wants to try to force a second referendum.

The elections expert said Labour cold come second with 20 seats, with Reform in third place with 16.

The Scottish Greens, with support at 8% and 12% respectively, could return 13 MSPs, ahead of the Scottish Tories, who Sir John suggested could return 12 MSPs, with support of 11% and 10%.

With the Liberal Democrats having support of 10% on both ballots, Alex Cole-Hamilton’s party could have 11 MSPs after the election.

Writing in the Sunday Times Sir John said “the SNP is still clearly in pole position” in the run-up to the election.

But he said Mr Swinney’s party “has to worry that a fall in Reform support might make it more likely that unionist voters will vote tactically against them”.

He said: “When voters are asked who they would back if they thought their contest locally was between Reform and the SNP, the SNP are 25 points ahead. In those circumstances, Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters are more likely to back the SNP than Reform.

“But if voters are persuaded that their local contest is between Labour and the SNP, the SNP lead falls to 11 points (much as it also does with the Liberal Democrats).

“Labour’s apparent emergence as the second party nationally might help the party persuade people it has the best chance of challenging the SNP locally.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie added: “More and more people are seeing through the rebranded Tories and self-promoting con artists in Reform after their disastrous campaign start, but the truth is they were never serious contenders in this race.

“It’s clearer than ever that this election is a straight choice between Scottish Labour and the SNP.

“After nearly two decades in government, the SNP is tired, complacent and out of touch and Scotland is crying out for change.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat deputy leader Wendy Chamberlain MP said the poll “shows a growing number of people backing Scottish Liberal Democrats, both in key constituencies where we can deny the SNP a majority and on the peach regional ballot”.

She added: “The poll also makes clear that people are seeing through Reform UK. No one wants to import the divisive politics of Donald Trump and Nigel Farage to Scotland, especially when it’s clear that so many of its candidates are deeply odd.”