Using overtime to offset falling police numbers is unsustainable, chief warns

Officers working overtime cannot continue to be used to offset falling police officer numbers, Scotland’s chief constable has warned.

Speaking at a meeting of the Scottish Police Authority (SPA) on Thursday, Sir Iain Livingstone said the force would have to assess the sustainability of high levels of overtime.

It comes as a financial report put to the SPA projected there to be 452 fewer officers than previous budget assumptions had predicted.

And there is a risk of overtime increasing further to maintain service and operational levels if officer numbers continue to fall below forecast assumptions.

Sir Iain previously raised concerns that officer numbers could continue to fall as a result of real-terms funding cuts of about £66 million.

The financial performance review, presented by James Gray, the SPA’s chief financial officer, predicted a first quarter being under budget of £2.3 million, largely due to the reduced officer numbers, which is saving more than £21 million.

However, against this underspend, there is an increase in police officer overtime, costing £11.9 million.

Addressing the overtime concerns, Sir Iain said: “We are seeing the impact in our service of having fewer officers across a range of operational areas including a responsiveness to calls from the public.

“Our forecast for the year shows we will run at an average of over 450 officers below our budgeted establishment of 17,134.

“The underspend on officer pay hasn’t quite been offset by a significant increase in overtime and some of the inflationary pressures.

“We are, of course, keeping a close review of the sustainability of high levels of overtime. Not only to ensure that we maintain a balanced budget, but vitally to ensure the safeguarding and wellbeing of our officer and staff and their families.

“We cannot continue to use overtime and place that burden on officers and staff of Police Scotland.”

And he reiterated fears that officer numbers would continue to drop without further support.

He said: “We know that if the spending review plans for flat cash award allocations for policing are continued through, and implemented into a budget for next year and beyond, policing will not be able to regain and retain that budgeted establishment of 17,234 officers as well as making provision for further pay awards.”

Scottish police officers are to receive a 5% increase in their pay and allowances.

Mr Gray also revealed a year-to-date, budget revenue overspend of £2.6 million, however, he said: “The size of the overspend at this stage represents less than 1% of the year-to-date budget.

“So the budget isn’t running away from us and that’s why. from a forecast perspective, we are forecasting that we will be able to deliver the budget and that will require active management.

“We’re not a long way off course, but what we’re forecasting for the end of the financial year, is that we will continue to see an underspend on core police officer costs of around £21 million.

“We will offset that to an extent through overtime but we will also see about £10 million of pressure come through on the non-pay budget, largely inflationary driven into places like utilities, repairs and maintenance and fuel costs for fleet.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “Within an incredibly challenging economic context we will continue to work in partnership with the Scottish Police Authority and Police Scotland to ensure the force continues to deliver sustainable excellence and effective and responsive policing across Scotland.

“Our police officers play a vital and valued role and we want to continue to recognise that by ensuring they continue to be the best paid in the UK. Our officer numbers are also favourable relative to elsewhere in the UK – with around 31 officers per 10,000 population in Scotland compared to around 24 in England and Wales as at March 2022.”