Poll finds 39% believe ‘de facto referendum’ would give independence mandate

Some 39% of Scots believe that a majority of voters backing pro-independence parties at the next general election would form a democratic mandate for independence, a poll has found.

In contrast, 38% said it would not form a democratic mandate for independence if there was no explicit referendum while the remainder of those quizzed were unsure or had no strong views.

Nicola Sturgeon has said she will treat the next general election as a “de facto referendum” if her case at the Supreme Court is not successful and judges rule the planned legislation for a second independence referendum is outwith Holyrood’s competence.

Ipsos Scotland interviewed 1,000 adults in Scotland between August 12 and 15.

The poll found 63% of Scots said that a Yes vote in a referendum which both the Scottish and UK governments agreed to hold would likely establish a mandate for independence.

If the UK Government did not agree to the referendum, 47% said a Yes vote would likely establish a mandate for independence.

Under this scenario, 35% said a Yes vote would not establish a mandate for independence and 18% were unsure or had no strong views.

Rachel Ormston, research director at Ipsos in Scotland, said: “These findings highlight the challenges for pro-independence supporters in finding a mechanism to establish a democratic mandate for independence that is widely accepted by the Scottish public as a whole.

“While the UK Government appears unlikely to agree to a second referendum in the near future, this is currently the only route that a clear majority of Scots view as legitimate.

“This is in spite of the fact that one of the arguments in favour of independence that the Scottish public find most convincing is that Westminster cannot be trusted to act in Scotland’s best interests.”

Responding to the poll, SNP MP Stewart Hosie said that among those who expressed a preference there was a majority who thought a Yes vote would deliver a mandate for independence under all scenarios.

Mr Hosie said: “This poll shows that in every possible scenario there is clear support amongst Scots for the basic principle that a vote for independence is a mandate for independence.

“A referendum similar to the one conducted in 2014 is the ideal scenario which would commit both sides to respecting the result, but right now the only roadblock to that is the Westminster government.

“If the Westminster party politicians have gamed on the Scottish public opposing a referendum without their approval, or a general election being a ‘de-facto’ referendum, they’ve been firmly put in their place by this poll which shows Scots’ growing dissatisfaction with the Tories’ undemocratic approach.

“The mandate the Scottish Government received in 2021 was just the latest in a series of mandates delivered by the people of Scotland after a shambolic 12 years of Tory rule, austerity, and Brexit chaos.

“Perhaps Westminster’s reluctance to agree terms on a referendum shows they are running scared of losing.”