Deaths over winter at third highest in 20 years, figures show

The number of deaths registered in Scotland last winter was the third highest in the past 20 years, figures have revealed.

National Records of Scotland confirmed 22,055 deaths were registered between December 2021 and March 2022 – with only the winters of 2017-18 and 2020-21 having higher totals.

However its report on winter mortality for 2021-22 revealed the rise in deaths last winter was the second lowest since records began 70 years ago.

That is because the period August to November 2021 had the highest total of deaths for that time of year, with 21,679 recorded – giving a seasonal increase in mortality of 1,320 for winter 2021-22.

The NRS report explained: “The seasonal increase in winter 2021-22 is low because it is being compared to a high number of deaths before winter.”

Just 60 of the additional 1,320 deaths in winter 2021-22 had Covid-19 as the underlying cause, the report said.

The causes of death with the largest seasonal increases over the period were dementia and Alzheimer’s disease – which was the underlying cause in 250 additional deaths – with cerebrovascular disease, such as strokes, applying in 180 such cases.

Coronary heart disease, along with other circulatory system diseases and chronic lower respiratory disease, were each found to be the underlying cause of 150 additional deaths.

The report noted: “Very few deaths are directly due to cold weather (eg hypothermia).”

Julie Ramsay, head of vital events statistics at NRS, said: “The seasonal increase in mortality can change substantially from winter to winter, but the long-term trend has clearly been downward.

“In the 1950s and 60s there was an average seasonal increase of over 5,200 deaths in winter, whereas over the most recent decade it has averaged around 2,600.

“Older age groups are consistently the most affected by increased mortality in winter. For people aged 85 and over, there were 9% more deaths than the months before and after winter, compared to 5% more winter deaths in the under 65 population.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “While there was a slight fall in the number of deaths last winter compared to the one before, we recognise the numbers remain high and we are doing all we can to prevent any unnecessary loss of life in the coming months.

“Given the scale of the escalating cost-of-living crisis, combined with the continued uncertainty posed by Covid-19 and a possible resurgence of flu, this winter will be one of the most challenging our NHS has ever faced.

“NHS Scotland’s staffing and funding is already at historically high levels, however to support winter resilience across our health and care system and ensure people get the right care they need, in the right setting at the right time, we have outlined a number of actions for the coming months backed by more than £600 million of funding.

“These include recruitment of 1,000 additional staff over the course of this winter, £45 million for the Scottish Ambulance Service to support ongoing recruitment, service development and winter planning, and £124 million to assist health and social care partnerships expand care at home capacity.

“In the meantime we continue to encourage all those who are eligible to take up the offer of the winter Covid-19 and flu vaccines to protect themselves, their families and the NHS.”