‘Pandemic-style’ plan needed to protect NHS over winter, think tank warns

A “pandemic-style” plan is required to protect the NHS over the winter, a think tank has said.

Our Scottish Future made the call in a new report, titled A Fractured Service, in which it urges Holyrood ministers to consider implementing a series of emergency measures.

NHS Scotland has been operating under strain of late as it tries to tackle increases in demand and backlogs.

On Tuesday, figures for accident and emergency waiting times showed that departments across the country recorded their worst-ever monthly performances on record in September.

Last month, it was announced that a Scottish Government pledge to “eradicate” waits of longer than two years in most specialties for inpatient cases was missed.

Some 7,650 Scots were found to still be waiting after two years for inpatient or day case procedures as of September 30.

Our Scottish Future has reported that even before the winter months begin, such issues are contributing to a rise in long-term sickness and excess deaths.

It has now called for the UK’s health leaders to work together on a four-nation basis to avoid a potential collapse of the NHS, and it has proposed measures for consideration.

These include a campaign aimed at informing members of the public on alternative services to access besides A&E in a bid to reduce “unnecessary backlogs”, and encouraging mask-wearing on public transport and all clinical settings.

It also called for carers to be given a statutory right to leave of absence to help them look after vulnerable people, and proposed the creation of “rapid support teams” – made up of police, firefighters and care workers – to help elderly people in need and avoid them having to go into hospital.

Government ministers, the think tank added, may need to consider drafting in military personnel to provide support to ambulance services and hospital wards.

The report’s authors, Andrew Mooney and Eddie Barnes, said: “Scottish clinicians we have spoken to in producing this report are clear. Without radical action, the founding principle of the NHS – of high-quality treatment free at the point of use – is going to end, and end quickly.

“The NHS will be replaced with a two-tier healthcare system, in which a booming private sector caters for better-off people to receive treatment more quickly.

“This will widen Scotland’s already gaping health inequalities. For those poorer families who are unable to pay, they will have to accept a second-class service.

“During the pandemic, our four chief medical officers collaborated to amplify key public health messages.

“This collaboration already happens widely and is to be welcomed. We believe that, as the NHS faces a crisis of similarly deep proportions to the pandemic, the same co-operative approach should be taken to help the NHS survive the coming months.”

A Scottish Government spokesman said: “Pandemic backlogs, Brexit-driven staff shortages, and inflation costs have all contributed to make this the most challenging winter the NHS has ever faced.

“Our £600 million winter plan will support services through this period and will see us recruit 1,000 new NHS staff, including up to 750 frontline nurses from overseas.

“Our £50 million Urgent and Unscheduled Care Collaborative looks to relieve pressure on services and drive down A&E waits by offering alternatives to hospital, such as Hospital at Home; more appropriate urgent care settings and urgent scheduled appointments.”

He added: “Our NHS and care services continually evolve to meet the changing needs to the people of Scotland, and reflect changes in practice and medicine. We will co-operate with other UK health services where appropriate – but health is clearly and must remain a devolved policy.”