Labour MP: ‘Inevitable’ Starmer will be ousted if 2026 elections are bad

Sir Keir Starmer faces being ousted after May’s elections unless he changes course, a leading Labour left-winger has warned.

Former frontbencher Richard Burgon said it was “inevitable” the Prime Minister would be toppled if the 2026 elections in Scotland, Wales and large parts of England go badly.

Sir Keir is facing a challenging week amid the fallout from the sacking of Lord Mandelson, frustrations from MPs and the state visit of US President Donald Trump.

Labour is consistently trailing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the opinion polls, suggesting May’s elections threaten to be a bloodbath for Sir Keir’s party.

Mr Burgon, a member of the shadow cabinet under Sir Keir’s predecessor Jeremy Corbyn, said: “Lots of MPs are looking to the elections next May, the opinion polls suggest it’s going to be a complete disaster unfortunately.

“I think it’s inevitable that if May’s elections go as people predict, and the opinion polls predict, then I think Starmer will be gone at that time.”

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It feels like we are years and years into an unpopular government, rather than a year into a government that’s just got rid of the Conservatives.

“We’re losing votes to the left, we’re going to be losing seats to the right.”

Dulwich and West Norwood MP Helen Hayes said there will need to be “questions about the nature of the leadership” if Labour fare badly in the 2026 contests.

“If those elections don’t go well, then that will be the time to ask questions,” she told BBC Radio 4’s Westminster Hour.

Skills minister and former home secretary Baroness Jacqui Smith defended Sir Keir, telling BBC Breakfast: “Richard Burgon has never supported this Prime Minister.

“He actually had the whip removed from him for a period of time because of his failure to support the Government, so the fact that he now thinks the Prime Minister should go is not actually new news.”

There has been speculation within Labour circles that Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could be manoeuvred into a Westminster seat in order to present himself as a leadership rival.

But an ally of Mr Burnham rejected that he is laying the foundations for a future leadership bid, calling the rumours “pure speculation with no substance”.

Asked if she thought Mr Burnham would do a better job as leader, Lady Smith said: “No. I think the Prime Minister is doing a good job.

“Of course Andy isn’t in Parliament, he’s doing a really good job as Mayor of Greater Manchester and actually when I talk to Andy what we tend to talk about is how can we make sure young people are getting the skills they need in Manchester, how can we support him to provide more opportunities… for the people of Greater Manchester.”

The Prime Minister is still facing questions over when he and No 10 knew the details of emails published last week that showed Labour grandee Lord Mandelson sent supportive messages to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein even as he faced jail for sex offences.

Lady Smith acknowledged that the Government was aware of emails between Lord Mandelson and Epstein on Tuesday last week, before Sir Keir’s public defence of the then ambassador at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday.

Lord Mandelson was sacked on Thursday after Sir Keir had reviewed the contents of the emails.

Lady Smith said: “What happened on Tuesday was that media sources came forward to the Foreign Office with extracts from the emails. The Foreign Office asked questions of Peter Mandelson.

“It was on Wednesday, and in fact not until after Prime Minister’s Questions that No 10 and the Prime Minister saw the detail of those emails.”

The Conservatives have written to Sir Keir asking him to explain the sequence of events leading to Lord Mandelson’s sacking and publish documents relating to his vetting and correspondence with the Downing Street operation last week.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said: “If the PM really believes in accountability, he would stop hiding, face Parliament, publish the Mandelson/Epstein files and tell the truth about what he and his chief of staff (Morgan McSweeney) knew and when.”