Fact check: Same-sex and opposite sex marriage data is not comparable

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said at a press conference that “the most stable relationships – the ones that last the longest – tend to be between men and women”.

Evaluation

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that of the couples who got divorced in 2023 in England and Wales, marriages among same-sex couples had lasted for a shorter time than opposite-sex couples.

However, comparing these figures is misleading because same-sex marriage had only been legal in England and Wales for nine years by 2023.

Studies have also examined this question. Some of those have showed similar relationship durations among same-sex and opposite-sex couples. Others have shown that opposite-sex relationships last longer.

Mr Farage did not respond when asked what source he had used for his claim.

The facts

What does the ONS data show?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) collects data on the duration of marriages that end in divorce.

The most recent data – from 2023 – would on the face of it appear to back up Mr Farage’s claims.

It shows that in England and Wales the average (median) opposite-sex couple that got divorced in 2023 had been married for 12.7 years. For same-sex male couples that figure was 7.2 years and for same-sex female couples it was 6.3 years.

However, same sex marriage has only been possible in England and Wales from March 2014, in Scotland since the last day of 2014, and in Northern Ireland since January 2020.

In previous years the ONS itself has issued warnings about comparing the same-sex and opposite sex data. In 2019 it said: “These smaller durations reflect that same-sex marriage has only been possible in England and Wales since March 2014 and the first of these divorces took place in 2015.”

Meanwhile, the duration of a marriage at divorce has increased significantly for same-sex couples.

The average duration of the marriage for female same-sex couples divorcing in 2015 was 1.6 years. This increased each year from 2015 until 2022 when it  reached 6.3 years, where it remained in 2023 (sheet 5b, column T).

For male same-sex couples the duration decreased slightly from 4.7 years in 2015 to 3.5 years in 2017, before increasing to 7.5 in 2022 and falling slightly to 7.2 years in 2023 (sheet 5b, column T).

As can be seen by the data above, the ONS figures on same-sex couples are slightly complicated by the fact that some of the same-sex couples divorcing are counted as being married for longer than has been legal in the UK.

This is for two reasons. It was possible for same-sex couples to get married outside the UK before March 2014, and such relationships can be included in the ONS’s divorce dataset.

The other reason is that same-sex couples had been able to enter into civil partnerships for several years before same-sex marriage was introduced. Couples in civil partnerships were allowed to convert these into marriages from December 2014. If such couples later divorced then the duration of the marriage is counted from the original date of the civil partnership.

Data from 2023 shows that 24.6% of male and 15.3% of female same-sex marriages that ended in divorce that year had lasted 10 years or more – meaning their start date is before 2014 (sheet 5b, rows 11-12).

This is a much smaller proportion than the 62.9% of opposite-sex marriages that had lasted 10 years or more before divorce (sheet 5a, row 11).

Is there other data that Mr Farage could have been referring to?

It is possible that Mr Farage is citing other figures which show a difference in duration between same-sex and opposite-sex relationships.

Neither Mr Farage nor the Reform UK press office responded to requests to provide the MP’s source.

Mr Farage was asked about same-sex marriages, but his answer referenced “relationships”. Relationship lengths are harder to measure because they are not legally defined and collected in the same way as marriages.

Therefore it is not possible to say how Mr Farage has come to this conclusion.

Academic research which tries to answer the question of whether same-sex or opposite-sex relationships last longer lacks a clear consensus.

One 2016 study from the US that looked at co-habiting couples found that same-sex and opposite sex couples “experience levels of stability that are similar”.

A 2015 study highlighted one challenge of researching the topic: “Same-sex couples in legal unions may have cohabited for many years but been in a legal union for a short time because legal union status became available only recently.”

A 2015 study which followed 190 couples who adopted a child found that after five years 12.3% of female same-sex couples, 2.0% of male same-sex couples and 8.3% of opposite-sex couples had broken up.

Meanwhile, other studies have found that the risk of divorce is higher for same-sex couples, especially for female couples, compared with couples of opposite sexes.

Links

Clip from press conference (archived)

ONS – Divorces and dissolutions in England and Wales: 2023 (archived)

Gov.uk – Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act: A factsheet (archived)

West Lothian Council – Information on same sex marriages (archived)

Gov.uk – Same-sex religious marriage in Northern Ireland (archived)

ONS – Divorces in England and Wales (archived page and spreadsheet download)

ONS – Divorces in England and Wales: 2019 (archived)

ONS – Divorces in England and Wales: 2018 (archived)

Same-Sex and Different-Sex Cohabiting Couple Relationship Stability (archived)

Challenges and Opportunities for Research on Same-Sex Relationships (archived)

Predictors of Relationship Dissolution in Lesbian, Gay, and Heterosexual Adoptive Parents (archived)

Divorce in same-sex and opposite-sex couples: The roles of intermarriage, religious affiliation, and income (archived)