Reform defends claim immigration and welfare proposals will save billions

Reform UK has defended its use of disputed figures to claim billions of pounds would be saved by its immigration and welfare plans, as it announced it would abolish migrant rights to qualify for indefinite leave to remain (ILR).

Party leader Nigel Farage said savings would be “considerably larger” than the £230 billion suggested by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), despite the think tank having since said the figure should no longer be used.

Under new plans, Reform said it would axe the right of migrants to apply for indefinite leave to remain, ban anyone who is not a UK citizen from claiming benefits, and force migrants applying for UK citizenship to renounce other citizenship.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figures show Reform’s plans “have no basis in reality”, while Labour chairwoman Anna Turley said Mr Farage was “unable to say how many families his policy would break up”. The Tories branded the proposals “half-baked and unworkable”.

Reform estimates about 800,000 people will be eligible for ILR in the next few years, after they arrived between 2020 and 2024, and insists savings can be made by blocking those without citizenship from claiming benefits.

But it has exempted EU citizens with settled status from its plans to ban migrant access to benefits and its policies on ILR. Government sources have said there are 777,000 foreign Universal Credit claimants with this status.

When pointed to the CPS statement, Mr Farage said: “The £230 billion figure, as Zia (Yusuf, head of policy) has just said, that is without a doubt too low.

“It underestimates things, I suspect many more than 800,000 actually will apply for indefinite leave to remain, plus it’s quite tough to get all the figures.

“And if you go back to those who have already been granted indefinite leave to remain, without doubt the number is considerably bigger.”

Responding to Reform’s announcement, Ms Reeves said: “The numbers that Reform have come out with overnight have already begun to disassemble.

“I want to bring down illegal migration. This Government is bringing down migration. We have sent a record number of people who have no right to be in our country home.”

She said: “It is a difficult challenge, I think everybody can see that, but simple gimmicks like those put forward by Reform that have no basis in reality and where the numbers just fall apart – that’s not the way to tackle a very serious issue, and this Labour Government are getting on and doing that.”

Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp accused Reform of copying Conservative ideas and called the policy “half-baked and unworkable”.

He said: “They lift our policies but strip away the detail that makes them enforceable. Mass low-skill migration carries real fiscal costs – in housing, welfare, and public services – which is why Britain needs a system that rewards contribution and stops abuse.”

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan condemned the plans. He said: “Threatening to deport people living and working here legally is unacceptable.”

Asked about the Mayor’s criticism, Mr Farage said: “What about about the ones that aren’t working? What about the ones who have never and never will work?

“What about having an honest debate about those we’ve let into this country, many of whom are great people, fine, we understand that, but too many of whom are not.”

In a statement published on Monday, the CPS said: “After the CPS’ report was published, the Office for Budget Responsibility revised their definitions of some of the fiscal data contained within our report, meaning that the overall cost estimates should no longer be used.”

Mr Farage wants to abolish indefinite leave to remain, for which migrants can currently apply after five years, and force them to renew their visa every five years.

Applicants would have to meet certain criteria, including a higher salary threshold and better standard of English. Reform were not able to give a specific figure for a salary cap on Monday, but said it would do so down the line.

They would have to have lived in the UK for seven years, up from five, and there would be tighter restrictions on bringing spouses and children to the UK.

But by the time of the next election, many of those who arrived during what Mr Farage calls the “Boris wave” of migration would already have qualified for indefinite leave to remain, before Reform had got into government.

People can usually apply for UK citizenship 12 months after being granted ILR. This means it is unclear how many will still have ILR by the time of the next election, as opposed to having been granted citizenship.

Mr Farage said the immigration figures under Mr Johnson, and Conservative governments since 2010, had “betrayed democracy”.

“Far too many that have come don’t work, have never worked and never will work,” he said.

“The ability to bring dependents of all kinds, and when you realise that most that come are very low-skilled, and on very low wages, you start to get a very, very different picture. In fact, you start to get a massive benefits bill.”

He said: “In particular, what we’re focusing on this morning is the ‘Boris wave’. The Boris wave, after his huge victory in 2019.

“And I think the millions that came in the years of his premiership, represents the greatest betrayal of democratic wishes certainly in anyone’s living memory.

“This is not what Brexit voters wanted, and it’s certainly not what any Conservative voter wanted from 2010 onwards.”

Mr Farage said those from Hong Kong and Ukraine would not be exempt from the measures.

EU citizens with settled status would be exempt, but the party’s head of policy Zia Yusuf indicated a Reform government would seek to reopen the EU withdrawal agreement, which guarantees EU citizens rights to claim benefits.

Mr Yusuf said: “There is a lot of EU nationals in this country who are drawing on universal credit, so you can expect Nigel’s government to open negotiations with the European Union specifically about the welfare aspect.

“But as Nigel has said time and again, the big issue we’re talking about here is the non-EU numbers.”

The party also indicated that businesses could end up paying higher wages as a result of the policy – but denied it would affect adult social care.

Mr Yusuf, said: “If we’re serious about saying we’re going to cut net immigration to zero, we’re going to embark on deporting people who are here illegally, we are going to stop the abuse of our welfare system, yes, there will be some businesses who do have to pay more for that labour.”