Climate change brings Europe fewer but heavier hailstones, experts find

Climate experts have predicted that hailstorms could be less frequent but more intense in Europe in the future.

They have modelled the outcome for how hailstorms will develop under global warming and found that severe hail was less likely, except for the potential for very large hailstones.

Experts from the universities of Newcastle and Bristol and the Met Office published the findings of their research in the journal Nature Communications.

Severe hail has a diameter of 2cm, while very large hailstones measure 5cm.

Bigger hailstones cause more damage than smaller ones and the experts warned that the benefits of having fewer storms would be outweighed by the greater destruction caused by the more severe ones that do occur.

Study lead author Dr Abdullah Kahraman, senior researcher in severe weather and climate change at Newcastle University, said: “Our findings indicate that the effects of climate change on severe thunderstorms are more complex than previously thought, and high-resolution models can produce results that differ significantly from earlier research.

“Society may need to prepare for less frequent, yet more damaging hail events locally, in a five-degree warmer future.”

Professor Lizzie Kendon, head of climate projections at the UK Met Office and professor of climate science at the University of Bristol, noted: “These results are very concerning.

“They imply we need to be prepared for tropical-type hailstorms impacting Europe in the future, associated with very large hailstones that can cause severe impacts.

“This possibility also extends to the UK, although the risk of hail here remains low into the future.”