People in poorer health ‘more likely to vote Reform UK’

People in poorer health are more likely to vote Reform UK, analysis suggests.

Experts from Imperial College London looked at voting patterns in last year’s general election, when Reform secured 14.3% of the votes and five seats.

Three of the five areas (60%) returning a Reform MP were in the most deprived fifth of the country, compared with 103 (29.7%) of Labour constituencies, according to the study published in BMJ Open Respiratory Research.

Reform UK areas had the highest proportion of people aged over 65, and people were more likely to suffer from 15 out of 20 health conditions compared to other regions.

The illnesses included asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, dementia, depression, diabetes, learning disabilities, arthritis and obesity.

The study found that the strongest links between voting for Reform and having a condition were for obesity, COPD and epilepsy.

A deep analysis showed that Reform constituencies had an average asthma prevalence of 7.44% and an average COPD prevalence of 2.85%, compared with 6.58% and 1.99% for Labour areas.

Reform areas also had an average prevalence of coronary heart disease of 3.90% compared with 2.98% in Conservative areas, and an average depression prevalence of 14.05% compared with 12.84% in Liberal Democrat areas.

The researchers concluded: “The main finding of our analysis was an association between poor health metrics at a constituency level and votes for Reform UK.

“The results are consistent with work showing a relationship between poor healthcare measures and Republican voting in the US and data from Italy linking dissatisfaction with public services and voting for the far right.

“In the UK, closure of local healthcare facilities has been shown to reduce reported patient satisfaction and increase support for populist right parties.

“Lung health is particularly influenced by health inequality, and conditions causing breathlessness (obesity, COPD as well as asthma and cardiac disease) appear in turn to be linked to voting patterns.”

The researchers said that the period of austerity in the UK, “aggravated” by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, had contributed to “the fact that many people with long-term lung conditions are missing out on basic aspects of care, which may fuel frustration with the status quo”.

They added: “Living in a home that is cold and/or damp is associated with an increased risk of acute exacerbations and hospitalisation, so poor housing will also interact with health experience.”

The team noted that three of the five Reform UK constituencies are coastal, which are known to have older, poorer populations with more long-term conditions.

They added that experience of both mental as well as physical health issues may influence decisions around voting and support for populist parties.

Reform UK has been contacted for comment.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokeswoman said: “This Government has put the NHS on the road to recovery after more than a decade of decline.

“We’ve delivered five million extra appointments, cut waiting lists by over 200,000 and recruited 2,000 more GPs.

“As well as the extra £26 billion we are investing this year, we are modernising the health service so patients have much more control over their healthcare, including by introducing online booking for GP appointments this month.”