Police preparing for 6% crime surge in first year if sentencing reforms go ahead

Police are preparing for a surge in crime of up to 6% in one year if government plans to cut the number of shorter prison sentences and release some criminals earlier go ahead.

Service bosses are bracing for thousands more offences to be committed in the immediate aftermath of the planned changes, as more offenders are on the streets rather than in prison.

Plans proposed under the Sentencing Bill to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis include limiting the use of short prison sentences and releasing convicted criminals earlier in their jail terms.

Police chiefs estimate that the extra strain on policing will cost £300 million to £400 million, but say it is currently “an unfunded consequence”.

In the year to June 2025, police in England and Wales recorded 6.6 million offences.

A rise of 6% would therefore equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes in one year.

Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a prison governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences.

The probation service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage demand if the sentences reforms are made.

Mr Devonport said: “We are expecting that while the programmes in the community are being ramped up by the probation service as part of their implementation plan to support offenders to rehabilitate, we expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community.”

He said that the rise in police recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4-6%.

Mr Devonport added: “I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation but it has to be properly funded.”

Police chiefs are supportive of the plans to reduce the use of short prison terms, as reoffending rates for prison sentences under less than 12 months currently stand at around 50%.

Chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council Gavin Stephens said: “We’ve all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular.

“So that’s a fundamental reason why we’re supportive of this.

“Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing, and we want that shift of demand onto us to be properly recognised and properly modelled … so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “The Government inherited a prison system in crisis, days away from running out of space.

“This would have brought the justice system to a standstill, stopped the police from being able to make arrests and led to unchecked criminality on our streets.

“Public safety will always be our top priority and we are building 14,000 more prison places to keep dangerous offenders locked up.

“Offenders released face strict licence conditions and we are increasing the probation budget by an extra £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.”