Education spending plans will struggle to narrow gaps in outcomes – report

The Government will struggle to narrow gaps in educational outcomes and address the crisis in special educational needs and disabilities (Send) with current spending plans, a report has warned.

The Institute for Government (IfG) has said Labour’s budget falls short of matching its ambitions for schools, and its aim to break the link between a child’s background and their future success will be difficult to achieve without a far more joined-up approach to Send reform.

Money is increasingly tied up in empty classrooms as pupil numbers fall, IfG added, and the Government’s current plan for tackling teacher shortages is “unfocused”.

Report author Amber Dellar said: “The Government has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them.

“The system’s slow adjustment to falling pupil numbers further stretches that budget, leaving money increasingly tied up in empty classrooms.

“And with no clear strategy to reform the Send system or tackle workforce shortages, the Government is struggling to keep its education priorities on track.”

Before the Budget later this month, IfG’s report, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, highlights several spending pressures on education that it says Labour will find “extremely difficult” to balance within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.

Pupil numbers in primary schools have been falling for several years – particularly in London, and the number of places in schools has not yet adjusted to this falling demand, IfG said. Because schools are funded on a per pupil basis, fewer pupils means smaller budgets for schools who are often having to maintain the same buildings and pay similar numbers of staff.

The equivalent of 23,000 primary school classrooms are empty across England, the highest number since records began in 2009/10, findings show. London’s primary schools have lost 8.1% of its pupils since 2018/19.

EHCPs (Education, Health and Care Plans) have more than doubled over the past nine years and funding for meeting special educational needs has increased sharply over the past decade in response to this.

IfG has predicted high needs spending will hit £12.9 billion in 2028/29, 93% higher than in 2012/13. But despite this, “there is less money per pupil in need”, the report said, and what there is is being spent in “costlier ways”.

The Government has delayed publishing its plans to reform the Send system until 2026 to give it an additional period of time to test proposals.

Mark Franks, director of welfare and economist at the Nuffield Foundation, said: “Falling pupil numbers, financial pressures, and staffing shortfalls all threaten to derail Government plans to close the education and outcome gaps for disadvantaged pupils.

“With limited fiscal headroom in current spending plans, scope to address these issues is constrained, leaving ministers with tough choices about how to tackle competing priorities.”

The Government also faces growing inequalities in performance – for example, the attainment gap at GCSE between London and England as a whole has grown since the pandemic – which may affect its ability to deliver on its opportunity mission, IfG said.

The Department for Education said the shortage of high-quality teachers in schools was one of its most critical challenges in 2024/25.

The Government has pledged an additional 6,500 teachers in classrooms by the end of Parliament to tackle this – and says there were already 2,300 more in secondary and special schools this year compared with last. However, the National Audit Office said earlier this year it was not clear whether the 6,500 pledge will “fully address current and expected teacher shortages”.